Models
NCC LIMITEDNCCConstruction
₹144per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹144implied FY26 P/E 12.9× · EV/EBITDA 6.6×
Against CMP ₹140.90+2.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(5.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹100₹231
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹130₹222
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,570 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,272 |
| Enterprise value | 11,842 |
| less net debt | (2,815) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,027 |
| ÷ 62.79 crore shares | ₹144 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 150 | 165 | 182 | 204 | 231 |
| 10.50% | 135 | 147 | 161 | 179 | 200 |
| 11.00% | 121 | 132 | 144 | 158 | 175 |
| 11.50% | 110 | 119 | 129 | 141 | 155 |
| 12.00% | 100 | 108 | 116 | 126 | 138 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹140.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 112 · 144 · 182 |
| Draws below the CMP | 45% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15,553 | 20,845 | 22,199 | 20,823 | 19,782 | 18,793 | 17,853 | 16,960 | 16,112 |
| growth % | 39.6 | 34.0 | 6.5 | (6.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 1,445 | 1,736 | 1,918 | 1,802 | 1,721 | 1,635 | 1,553 | 1,476 | 1,402 |
| margin % | 9.3 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| less depreciation | (203) | (212) | (216) | (235) | (218) | (207) | (196) | (187) | (177) |
| EBIT | 1,242 | 1,524 | 1,702 | 1,567 | 1,503 | 1,428 | 1,357 | 1,289 | 1,225 |
| less tax on EBIT | (379) | (364) | (346) | (328) | (312) | (296) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,188 | 1,140 | 1,083 | 1,028 | 977 | 928 | |||
| add depreciation | 203 | 212 | 216 | 235 | 218 | 207 | 196 | 187 | 177 |
| less capex | (347) | (285) | (320) | (955) | (910) | (710) | (528) | (363) | (213) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 753 | 1,074 | 422 | — | 447 | 579 | 696 | 801 | 893 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 424 | 495 | 536 | 556 | 558 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,457, dividends at 20.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,567 | 1,503 | 1,428 | 1,357 | 1,289 | 1,225 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (277) | (277) | (277) | (277) | (277) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,227 | 1,152 | 1,080 | 1,012 | 948 | |
| Profit after tax | 675 | 930 | 873 | 819 | 767 | 719 |
| Dividends | (138) | (191) | (179) | (168) | (157) | (147) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 642 | 689 | 879 | 1,198 | 1,632 | 2,168 |
| Working capital | (1,666) | (1,666) | (1,666) | (1,666) | (1,666) | (1,666) |
| Net block and other assets | 27,030 | 27,722 | 28,226 | 28,558 | 28,734 | 28,770 |
| Debt | 3,457 | 3,457 | 3,457 | 3,457 | 3,457 | 3,457 |
| Equity | 8,029 | 8,768 | 9,462 | 10,113 | 10,724 | 11,295 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,148 | 1,080 | 1,015 | 954 | 896 | |
| Investing (capex) | (910) | (710) | (528) | (363) | (213) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (191) | (179) | (168) | (157) | (147) | |
| Net change in cash | 47 | 190 | 319 | 434 | 536 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 238 | 369 | 487 | 591 | 683 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 8.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹144 | 2.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.