Models
NCL INDUSTRIES LIMITEDNCLINDCement & Cement Products
₹257per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹257implied FY26 P/E 12.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹175.49+46.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(10.9)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹185₹399
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹148₹215
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 305 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,089 |
| Enterprise value | 1,394 |
| less net debt | (233) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,161 |
| ÷ 4.52 crore shares | ₹257 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 267 | 291 | 320 | 355 | 399 |
| 10.50% | 242 | 262 | 285 | 314 | 348 |
| 11.00% | 220 | 237 | 257 | 280 | 308 |
| 11.50% | 202 | 216 | 233 | 252 | 274 |
| 12.00% | 185 | 198 | 212 | 228 | 247 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹175.49; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 194 · 254 · 325 |
| Draws below the CMP | 4% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,610 | 1,871 | 1,411 | 1,422 | 1,436 | 1,451 | 1,465 | 1,480 | 1,495 |
| growth % | (1.5) | 16.3 | (24.6) | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 148 | 207 | 99 | 180 | 182 | 184 | 186 | 188 | 190 |
| margin % | 9.2 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| less depreciation | (49) | (56) | (57) | (55) | (56) | (57) | (57) | (58) | (58) |
| EBIT | 99 | 151 | 43 | 125 | 126 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 132 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (12) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |||
| NOPAT | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 119 | |||
| add depreciation | 49 | 56 | 57 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 57 | 58 | 58 |
| less capex | (103) | (62) | (118) | (110) | (111) | (101) | (91) | (80) | (70) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 79 | 121 | (32) | — | 57 | 69 | 81 | 93 | 105 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 54 | 59 | 62 | 64 | 66 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 237, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 125 | 126 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 132 |
| Interest at 7.8% on debt | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | |
| Profit before tax | 108 | 109 | 110 | 112 | 113 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 97 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 |
| Dividends | (16) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 44 | 96 | 160 | 236 | 325 |
| Working capital | 203 | 205 | 207 | 210 | 212 | 214 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,368 | 1,422 | 1,466 | 1,500 | 1,523 | 1,534 |
| Debt | 237 | 237 | 237 | 237 | 237 | 237 |
| Equity | 940 | 1,038 | 1,136 | 1,236 | 1,337 | 1,439 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 151 | 153 | 155 | 156 | 158 | |
| Investing (capex) | (111) | (101) | (91) | (80) | (70) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 41 | 52 | 64 | 76 | 88 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 41 | 52 | 64 | 76 | 88 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 12.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹257 | 46.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.