Models
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₹445per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹445implied FY26 P/E 16.3× · EV/EBITDA 11.6×
Against CMP ₹697.15−36.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies28.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3188%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹331₹673
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹605₹1,187
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 121 |
| PV of terminal value | 922 |
| Enterprise value | 1,043 |
| less net debt | 15 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,058 |
| ÷ 2.38 crore shares | ₹445 |
88% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 461 | 499 | 545 | 602 | 673 |
| 10.50% | 420 | 453 | 490 | 536 | 592 |
| 11.00% | 386 | 413 | 445 | 482 | 527 |
| 11.50% | 357 | 380 | 406 | 437 | 474 |
| 12.00% | 331 | 350 | 373 | 399 | 430 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹697.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 339 · 441 · 570 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.52 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 393 | 602 | 713 | 823 | 950 | 1,097 | 1,267 | 1,464 | 1,691 |
| growth % | 68.9 | 53.2 | 18.5 | 15.4 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | 32 | 56 | 73 | 90 | 104 | 120 | 138 | 160 | 184 |
| margin % | 8.1 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (15) | (16) | (21) | (25) | (29) | (33) | (38) | (44) |
| EBIT | 23 | 41 | 57 | 69 | 79 | 91 | 105 | 121 | 140 |
| less tax on EBIT | (18) | (20) | (23) | (27) | (31) | (36) | |||
| NOPAT | 51 | 59 | 68 | 78 | 90 | 104 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 15 | 16 | 21 | 25 | 29 | 33 | 38 | 44 |
| less capex | (46) | (34) | (48) | (73) | (85) | (82) | (76) | (67) | (53) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2 | (7) | 36 | — | (5) | 10 | 30 | 56 | 89 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (5) | 9 | 23 | 39 | 55 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 69 | 79 | 91 | 105 | 121 | 140 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 79 | 91 | 105 | 121 | 140 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 59 | 68 | 78 | 90 | 104 |
| Dividends | (6) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 15 | 10 | 20 | 50 | 106 | 194 |
| Working capital | 24 | 27 | 32 | 37 | 42 | 49 |
| Net block and other assets | 524 | 584 | 637 | 681 | 709 | 718 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 358 | 416 | 484 | 562 | 652 | 756 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 80 | 92 | 106 | 123 | 142 | |
| Investing (capex) | (85) | (82) | (76) | (67) | (53) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (5) | 10 | 30 | 56 | 89 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (5) | 10 | 30 | 56 | 89 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 10.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹445 | (36.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.