Models
NELCAST LIMITEDNELCASTIndustrial Products
₹72per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹72implied FY26 P/E 15.3× · EV/EBITDA 7.2×
Against CMP ₹108.05−33.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹53₹111
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹86₹173
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 228 |
| PV of terminal value | 572 |
| Enterprise value | 800 |
| less net debt | (172) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 628 |
| ÷ 8.70 crore shares | ₹72 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 75 | 82 | 90 | 99 | 111 |
| 10.50% | 68 | 74 | 80 | 88 | 97 |
| 11.00% | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 | 86 |
| 11.50% | 57 | 61 | 66 | 71 | 77 |
| 12.00% | 53 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 69 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹108.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 52 · 72 · 93 |
| Draws below the CMP | 98% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,264 | 1,267 | 1,252 | 1,328 | 1,408 | 1,493 | 1,582 | 1,677 | 1,778 |
| growth % | 36.3 | 0.2 | (1.2) | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 79 | 110 | 92 | 110 | 117 | 124 | 131 | 139 | 148 |
| margin % | 6.3 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| less depreciation | (24) | (24) | (25) | (27) | (28) | (30) | (32) | (34) | (36) |
| EBIT | 55 | 86 | 68 | 83 | 89 | 94 | 100 | 106 | 112 |
| less tax on EBIT | (21) | (23) | (24) | (25) | (27) | (28) | |||
| NOPAT | 62 | 66 | 70 | 74 | 79 | 84 | |||
| add depreciation | 24 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 34 | 36 |
| less capex | (20) | (64) | (39) | (16) | (17) | (22) | (28) | (35) | (43) |
| less working-capital build | — | (17) | (18) | (19) | (20) | (21) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 61 | (44) | 66 | — | 61 | 60 | 59 | 57 | 55 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 57 | 51 | 45 | 40 | 34 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 257, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 83 | 89 | 94 | 100 | 106 | 112 |
| Interest at 11.8% on debt | (30) | (30) | (30) | (30) | (30) | |
| Profit before tax | 58 | 64 | 69 | 75 | 82 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 61 |
| Dividends | (4) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 85 | 123 | 160 | 196 | 230 | 262 |
| Working capital | 281 | 298 | 316 | 335 | 355 | 376 |
| Net block and other assets | 833 | 822 | 814 | 811 | 813 | 820 |
| Debt | 257 | 257 | 257 | 257 | 257 | 257 |
| Equity | 599 | 643 | 690 | 742 | 798 | 859 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 55 | 59 | 64 | 70 | 75 | |
| Investing (capex) | (17) | (22) | (28) | (35) | (43) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 38 | 37 | 36 | 34 | 32 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 38 | 37 | 36 | 34 | 32 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 8.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹72 | (33.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.