Models
NEPHROCARE HEALTH SERV LNEPHROPLUSHealthcare Services
₹151per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹151implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 6.5×
Against CMP ₹765.20−80.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹118₹218
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹446₹770
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 337 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,137 |
| Enterprise value | 1,474 |
| less net debt | 44 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,518 |
| ÷ 10.03 crore shares | ₹151 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 156 | 167 | 181 | 198 | 218 |
| 10.50% | 144 | 154 | 165 | 178 | 194 |
| 11.00% | 134 | 142 | 151 | 162 | 175 |
| 11.50% | 125 | 132 | 140 | 149 | 160 |
| 12.00% | 118 | 124 | 130 | 138 | 147 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹765.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 111 · 150 · 193 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 999 | 1,079 | 1,165 | 1,258 | 1,359 | 1,468 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 227 | 245 | 264 | 286 | 308 | 333 |
| margin % | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 |
| less depreciation | (91) | (98) | (106) | (115) | (124) | (134) |
| EBIT | 136 | 147 | 158 | 171 | 185 | 200 |
| less tax on EBIT | (28) | (30) | (32) | (35) | (38) | (41) |
| NOPAT | 108 | 117 | 126 | 136 | 147 | 159 |
| add depreciation | 91 | 98 | 106 | 115 | 124 | 134 |
| less capex | (119) | (128) | (136) | (144) | (152) | (160) |
| less working-capital build | — | (17) | (18) | (19) | (21) | (23) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 70 | 78 | 88 | 98 | 109 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 66 | 67 | 68 | 68 | 68 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 80, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 136 | 147 | 158 | 171 | 185 | 200 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 140 | 152 | 165 | 178 | 193 | |
| Profit after tax | 77 | 112 | 121 | 131 | 142 | 154 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 124 | 189 | 262 | 345 | 438 | 542 |
| Working capital | 207 | 223 | 241 | 261 | 281 | 304 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,140 | 1,170 | 1,200 | 1,229 | 1,257 | 1,284 |
| Debt | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
| Equity | 1,116 | 1,228 | 1,349 | 1,480 | 1,622 | 1,775 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 193 | 209 | 226 | 245 | 265 | |
| Investing (capex) | (128) | (136) | (144) | (152) | (160) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 65 | 73 | 83 | 93 | 104 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 65 | 73 | 83 | 93 | 104 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 22.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹151 | (80.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.