Models
NESCO LTD.NESCOCommercial Services & Supplies
₹1,947per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,947implied FY26 P/E 32.9× · EV/EBITDA 27.9×
Against CMP ₹1,097.00+77.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies13.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,452₹2,940
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹996₹1,639
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,836 |
| PV of terminal value | 11,869 |
| Enterprise value | 13,706 |
| less net debt | 14 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 13,720 |
| ÷ 7.05 crore shares | ₹1,947 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,017 | 2,185 | 2,386 | 2,632 | 2,940 |
| 10.50% | 1,842 | 1,982 | 2,147 | 2,344 | 2,586 |
| 11.00% | 1,693 | 1,810 | 1,947 | 2,109 | 2,304 |
| 11.50% | 1,564 | 1,664 | 1,779 | 1,914 | 2,073 |
| 12.00% | 1,452 | 1,538 | 1,636 | 1,749 | 1,881 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,097.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,410 · 1,935 · 2,625 |
| Draws below the CMP | 1% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 337 | 546 | 732 | 932 | 1,188 | 1,515 | 1,932 | 2,463 | 3,140 |
| growth % | 15.9 | 61.8 | 34.1 | 27.3 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 |
| EBITDA | 219 | 349 | 438 | 490 | 625 | 797 | 1,016 | 1,296 | 1,652 |
| margin % | 64.9 | 63.9 | 59.8 | 52.6 | 52.6 | 52.6 | 52.6 | 52.6 | 52.6 |
| less depreciation | (28) | (33) | (50) | (49) | (63) | (80) | (102) | (131) | (166) |
| EBIT | 191 | 316 | 388 | 441 | 562 | 717 | 914 | 1,165 | 1,485 |
| less tax on EBIT | (88) | (112) | (143) | (183) | (233) | (297) | |||
| NOPAT | 353 | 450 | 573 | 731 | 932 | 1,188 | |||
| add depreciation | 28 | 33 | 50 | 49 | 63 | 80 | 102 | 131 | 166 |
| less capex | 0 | (9) | (784) | (322) | (411) | (417) | (396) | (331) | (200) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (6) | (8) | (10) | (12) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 163 | 288 | (436) | — | 97 | 230 | 430 | 722 | 1,143 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 92 | 197 | 331 | 501 | 715 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 11.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 441 | 562 | 717 | 914 | 1,165 | 1,485 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 562 | 717 | 914 | 1,165 | 1,485 | |
| Profit after tax | 413 | 450 | 573 | 731 | 932 | 1,188 |
| Dividends | (46) | (50) | (64) | (81) | (103) | (132) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 14 | 61 | 228 | 577 | 1,196 | 2,207 |
| Working capital | 17 | 21 | 27 | 35 | 44 | 57 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,658 | 4,006 | 4,343 | 4,636 | 4,836 | 4,869 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,996 | 3,396 | 3,906 | 4,556 | 5,384 | 6,441 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 508 | 648 | 826 | 1,053 | 1,343 | |
| Investing (capex) | (411) | (417) | (396) | (331) | (200) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (50) | (64) | (81) | (103) | (132) | |
| Net change in cash | 47 | 167 | 349 | 619 | 1,011 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 97 | 230 | 430 | 722 | 1,143 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 27.5% | 52.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,947 | 77.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.