Models
NESTLE INDIA LIMITEDNESTLEINDFood Products
₹482per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹482implied FY26 P/E 24.4× · EV/EBITDA 16.9×
Against CMP ₹1,383.30−65.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies43.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹372₹701
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,145₹1,553
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 20,219 |
| PV of terminal value | 71,402 |
| Enterprise value | 91,620 |
| less net debt | 1,296 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 92,916 |
| ÷ 192.83 crore shares | ₹482 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 498 | 535 | 579 | 633 | 701 |
| 10.50% | 459 | 490 | 526 | 569 | 623 |
| 11.00% | 426 | 452 | 482 | 517 | 560 |
| 11.50% | 397 | 419 | 445 | 474 | 509 |
| 12.00% | 372 | 391 | 413 | 438 | 467 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,383.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 386 · 480 · 595 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.50 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20,202 | 23,155 | 26,512 | 30,356 | 34,758 | 39,798 | 45,568 |
| growth % | — | 14.6 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| EBITDA | 4,957 | 5,427 | 6,204 | 7,103 | 8,133 | 9,313 | 10,663 |
| margin % | 24.5 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 |
| less depreciation | (540) | (699) | (795) | (911) | (1,043) | (1,194) | (1,367) |
| EBIT | 4,417 | 4,728 | 5,408 | 6,193 | 7,091 | 8,119 | 9,296 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,092) | (1,249) | (1,431) | (1,638) | (1,875) | (2,147) | |
| NOPAT | 3,636 | 4,159 | 4,762 | 5,453 | 6,243 | 7,149 | |
| add depreciation | 540 | 699 | 795 | 911 | 1,043 | 1,194 | 1,367 |
| less capex | (2,009) | (830) | (954) | (1,093) | (1,251) | (1,433) | (1,640) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 928 | — | 4,000 | 4,580 | 5,244 | 6,005 | 6,875 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 3,797 | 3,916 | 4,040 | 4,167 | 4,299 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 24, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4,728 | 5,408 | 6,193 | 7,091 | 8,119 | 9,296 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 5,406 | 6,191 | 7,089 | 8,117 | 9,294 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 4,158 | 4,761 | 5,451 | 6,242 | 7,147 |
| Dividends | (2,314) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,321 | 5,319 | 9,898 | 15,140 | 21,143 | 28,017 |
| Working capital | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) |
| Net block and other assets | 11,932 | 12,091 | 12,273 | 12,481 | 12,720 | 12,994 |
| Debt | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Equity | 5,157 | 9,315 | 14,075 | 19,526 | 25,768 | 32,915 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,953 | 5,671 | 6,494 | 7,436 | 8,514 | |
| Investing (capex) | (954) | (1,093) | (1,251) | (1,433) | (1,640) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 3,999 | 4,579 | 5,243 | 6,003 | 6,874 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 3,999 | 4,579 | 5,243 | 6,003 | 6,874 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14.5% | 23.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹482 | (65.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.