₹287per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹287implied FY26 P/E 6.2× · EV/EBITDA 5.4×
Against CMP ₹5,044.50−94.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹223₹415
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,822₹5,813
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 305 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,234 |
| Enterprise value | 1,538 |
| less net debt | 94 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,632 |
| ÷ 5.69 crore shares | ₹287 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 296 | 317 | 343 | 375 | 415 |
| 10.50% | 273 | 291 | 312 | 338 | 369 |
| 11.00% | 254 | 269 | 287 | 307 | 332 |
| 11.50% | 237 | 250 | 265 | 282 | 303 |
| 12.00% | 223 | 234 | 246 | 261 | 278 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,044.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (36) · 286 · 500 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.72 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 724 | 1,149 | 2,184 | 2,839 | 3,690 | 4,797 | 6,236 | 8,107 |
| growth % | — | 58.7 | 90.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 103 | 160 | 285 | 369 | 480 | 624 | 811 | 1,054 |
| margin % | 14.2 | 13.9 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (11) | (14) | (20) | (26) | (34) | (44) | (57) |
| EBIT | 96 | 149 | 271 | 349 | 454 | 590 | 767 | 997 |
| less tax on EBIT | (69) | (89) | (116) | (151) | (196) | (255) | ||
| NOPAT | 201 | 260 | 338 | 439 | 571 | 742 | ||
| add depreciation | 6 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 26 | 34 | 44 | 57 |
| less capex | (19) | (25) | (12) | (14) | (22) | (32) | (47) | (68) |
| less working-capital build | — | (214) | (278) | (362) | (471) | (612) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1) | (39) | — | 51 | 63 | 78 | 97 | 119 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 49 | 54 | 60 | 67 | 74 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 272, dividends at 6.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 271 | 349 | 454 | 590 | 767 | 997 |
| Interest at 9.5% on debt | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | |
| Profit before tax | 323 | 428 | 564 | 741 | 971 | |
| Profit after tax | 206 | 241 | 318 | 420 | 552 | 723 |
| Dividends | (14) | (17) | (22) | (29) | (38) | (50) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 366 | 381 | 403 | 434 | 473 | 523 |
| Working capital | 714 | 929 | 1,207 | 1,569 | 2,040 | 2,651 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,175 | 1,169 | 1,165 | 1,164 | 1,167 | 1,179 |
| Debt | 272 | 272 | 272 | 272 | 272 | 272 |
| Equity | 723 | 947 | 1,244 | 1,635 | 2,148 | 2,821 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 46 | 66 | 91 | 125 | 168 | |
| Investing (capex) | (14) | (22) | (32) | (47) | (68) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (17) | (22) | (29) | (38) | (50) | |
| Net change in cash | 15 | 22 | 30 | 39 | 50 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 32 | 44 | 59 | 77 | 100 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 13% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹287 | (94.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.