Models
NEWGEN SOFTWARE TECH LTDNEWGENIT - Software
₹286per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹286implied FY26 P/E 12.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.9×
Against CMP ₹502.90−43.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹225₹407
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹401₹1,042
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,041 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,900 |
| Enterprise value | 3,941 |
| less net debt | 104 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,045 |
| ÷ 14.15 crore shares | ₹286 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 295 | 315 | 340 | 370 | 407 |
| 10.50% | 273 | 290 | 310 | 335 | 364 |
| 11.00% | 255 | 269 | 286 | 306 | 329 |
| 11.50% | 239 | 251 | 265 | 282 | 301 |
| 12.00% | 225 | 236 | 247 | 261 | 277 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹502.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 240 · 284 · 339 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 974 | 1,244 | 1,487 | 1,574 | 1,669 | 1,769 | 1,875 | 1,988 | 2,107 |
| growth % | 25.0 | 27.7 | 19.5 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 212 | 288 | 376 | 362 | 384 | 407 | 431 | 457 | 485 |
| margin % | 21.8 | 23.2 | 25.3 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| less depreciation | (25) | (28) | (33) | (37) | (38) | (41) | (43) | (46) | (48) |
| EBIT | 188 | 260 | 343 | 326 | 345 | 366 | 388 | 411 | 436 |
| less tax on EBIT | (73) | (77) | (82) | (87) | (92) | (98) | |||
| NOPAT | 253 | 268 | 284 | 301 | 319 | 338 | |||
| add depreciation | 25 | 28 | 33 | 37 | 38 | 41 | 43 | 46 | 48 |
| less capex | (17) | (14) | (23) | (10) | (10) | (20) | (32) | (44) | (58) |
| less working-capital build | — | (39) | (42) | (44) | (47) | (49) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 120 | 268 | 192 | — | 257 | 263 | 269 | 274 | 279 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 244 | 225 | 207 | 190 | 175 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 23.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 326 | 345 | 366 | 388 | 411 | 436 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 345 | 366 | 388 | 411 | 436 | |
| Profit after tax | 301 | 268 | 284 | 301 | 319 | 338 |
| Dividends | (71) | (63) | (67) | (71) | (75) | (80) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 104 | 298 | 494 | 691 | 890 | 1,089 |
| Working capital | 653 | 692 | 734 | 778 | 825 | 874 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,686 | 1,658 | 1,637 | 1,625 | 1,624 | 1,633 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,777 | 1,982 | 2,199 | 2,429 | 2,673 | 2,932 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 267 | 283 | 300 | 318 | 337 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (20) | (32) | (44) | (58) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (63) | (67) | (71) | (75) | (80) | |
| Net change in cash | 194 | 196 | 198 | 199 | 199 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 257 | 263 | 269 | 274 | 279 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 23% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹286 | (43.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.