Models
NHPC LTDNHPCPower
₹-5per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(5)implied FY26 P/E (1.2)× · EV/EBITDA 8.7×
Against CMP ₹76.38−106.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies39.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31119%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(20)₹27
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹72₹89
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (8,633) |
| PV of terminal value | 54,235 |
| Enterprise value | 45,602 |
| less net debt | (50,173) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (4,571) |
| ÷ 1,004.50 crore shares | ₹(5) |
119% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (3) | 3 | 9 | 17 | 27 |
| 10.50% | (8) | (4) | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 11.00% | (13) | (9) | (5) | 1 | 7 |
| 11.50% | (17) | (14) | (10) | (6) | (0) |
| 12.00% | (20) | (17) | (14) | (11) | (6) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹76.38; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (21) · (5) · 14 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,607 | 9,632 | 10,380 | 11,615 | 13,009 | 14,570 | 16,319 | 18,277 | 20,470 |
| growth % | 15.4 | (9.2) | 7.8 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 6,268 | 4,868 | 5,520 | 5,236 | 5,867 | 6,571 | 7,360 | 8,243 | 9,232 |
| margin % | 59.1 | 50.5 | 53.2 | 45.1 | 45.1 | 45.1 | 45.1 | 45.1 | 45.1 |
| less depreciation | (1,215) | (1,184) | (1,193) | (1,976) | (2,212) | (2,477) | (2,774) | (3,107) | (3,480) |
| EBIT | 5,053 | 3,684 | 4,327 | 3,260 | 3,656 | 4,094 | 4,586 | 5,136 | 5,752 |
| less tax on EBIT | 365 | 409 | 459 | 514 | 575 | 644 | |||
| NOPAT | 3,625 | 4,065 | 4,553 | 5,099 | 5,711 | 6,396 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,215 | 1,184 | 1,193 | 1,976 | 2,212 | 2,477 | 2,774 | 3,107 | 3,480 |
| less capex | (4,960) | (6,997) | (8,851) | (11,572) | (12,957) | (11,627) | (9,791) | (7,347) | (4,176) |
| less working-capital build | — | (304) | (340) | (381) | (427) | (478) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (268) | (60) | (3,825) | — | (6,984) | (4,938) | (2,299) | 1,044 | 5,222 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (6,629) | (4,222) | (1,771) | 724 | 3,265 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 52,134, dividends at 62.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3,260 | 3,656 | 4,094 | 4,586 | 5,136 | 5,752 |
| Interest at 3.1% on debt | (1,616) | (1,616) | (1,616) | (1,616) | (1,616) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,039 | 2,478 | 2,969 | 3,520 | 4,136 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,766 | 2,268 | 2,756 | 3,302 | 3,914 | 4,599 |
| Dividends | (2,355) | (1,417) | (1,722) | (2,064) | (2,446) | (2,874) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,961 | (8,238) | (16,695) | (22,855) | (26,054) | (25,504) |
| Working capital | 2,536 | 2,840 | 3,180 | 3,562 | 3,988 | 4,467 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,15,513 | 1,26,259 | 1,35,409 | 1,42,426 | 1,46,666 | 1,47,362 |
| Debt | 52,134 | 52,134 | 52,134 | 52,134 | 52,134 | 52,134 |
| Equity | 48,405 | 49,255 | 50,289 | 51,527 | 52,995 | 54,719 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,176 | 4,892 | 5,695 | 6,594 | 7,601 | |
| Investing (capex) | (12,957) | (11,627) | (9,791) | (7,347) | (4,176) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,417) | (1,722) | (2,064) | (2,446) | (2,874) | |
| Net change in cash | (10,199) | (8,457) | (6,160) | (3,199) | 551 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (8,782) | (6,735) | (4,096) | (753) | 3,425 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 45.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(5) | (106.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.