Models
NILA INFRASTRUCTURES LTDNILAINFRARealty
₹3per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹3implied FY26 P/E 4.0× · EV/EBITDA 3.8×
Against CMP ₹6.63−62.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(12.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2₹4
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹6₹12
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 28 |
| PV of terminal value | 94 |
| Enterprise value | 122 |
| less net debt | (23) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 99 |
| ÷ 39.39 crore shares | ₹3 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 10.50% | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 11.00% | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 11.50% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 12.00% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹6.63; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (3) · 3 · 6 |
| Draws below the CMP | 92% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.79 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 115 | 185 | 247 | 323 | 420 | 545 | 709 | 922 | 1,198 |
| growth % | 38.1 | 60.4 | 33.7 | 30.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 3 | 11 | 22 | 32 | 42 | 55 | 71 | 92 | 120 |
| margin % | 2.2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
| EBIT | 1 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 40 | 52 | 67 | 88 | 114 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (10) | (13) | (17) | (23) | (29) | |||
| NOPAT | 23 | 30 | 38 | 50 | 65 | 84 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| less capex | (0) | (1) | (3) | 0 | 0 | (1) | (2) | (4) | (7) |
| less working-capital build | — | (26) | (34) | (44) | (57) | (74) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 58 | 65 | 57 | — | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 24, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 31 | 40 | 52 | 67 | 88 | 114 |
| Interest at 17.4% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 36 | 48 | 63 | 83 | 110 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 26 | 35 | 47 | 62 | 81 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 22 |
| Working capital | 87 | 113 | 146 | 190 | 247 | 321 |
| Net block and other assets | 807 | 805 | 803 | 801 | 801 | 802 |
| Debt | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Equity | 187 | 214 | 249 | 296 | 358 | 439 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 13 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (1) | (2) | (4) | (7) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 10% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹3 | (62.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.