Models
NILE LTD.NILEMinerals & Mining
₹2,576per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,576implied FY26 P/E 14.2× · EV/EBITDA 9.7×
Against CMP ₹1,448.00+77.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,979₹3,770
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,437₹2,019
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 145 |
| PV of terminal value | 607 |
| Enterprise value | 751 |
| less net debt | 22 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 773 |
| ÷ 0.30 crore shares | ₹2,576 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,662 | 2,863 | 3,105 | 3,400 | 3,770 |
| 10.50% | 2,451 | 2,619 | 2,816 | 3,054 | 3,344 |
| 11.00% | 2,271 | 2,412 | 2,576 | 2,770 | 3,004 |
| 11.50% | 2,115 | 2,235 | 2,373 | 2,535 | 2,726 |
| 12.00% | 1,979 | 2,082 | 2,200 | 2,336 | 2,494 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,448.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,016 · 2,548 · 3,151 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 806 | 838 | 920 | 1,041 | 1,176 | 1,329 | 1,501 | 1,697 | 1,917 |
| growth % | 14.8 | 3.9 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| EBITDA | 36 | 46 | 56 | 78 | 88 | 100 | 113 | 127 | 144 |
| margin % | 4.4 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
| EBIT | 33 | 43 | 52 | 74 | 83 | 94 | 107 | 120 | 136 |
| less tax on EBIT | (20) | (23) | (26) | (29) | (33) | (37) | |||
| NOPAT | 54 | 61 | 69 | 78 | 88 | 99 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| less capex | (5) | (19) | (14) | (17) | (19) | (18) | (16) | (13) | (9) |
| less working-capital build | — | (24) | (27) | (31) | (35) | (39) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 46 | 6 | (15) | — | 23 | 29 | 37 | 47 | 58 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 22 | 25 | 29 | 33 | 37 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 12, dividends at 2.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 74 | 83 | 94 | 107 | 120 | 136 |
| Interest at 12.6% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 82 | 93 | 105 | 119 | 135 | |
| Profit after tax | 55 | 60 | 68 | 77 | 87 | 98 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 34 | 54 | 80 | 115 | 158 | 213 |
| Working capital | 185 | 209 | 236 | 267 | 302 | 341 |
| Net block and other assets | 135 | 149 | 162 | 171 | 177 | 179 |
| Debt | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Equity | 316 | 374 | 440 | 515 | 599 | 695 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 40 | 46 | 52 | 59 | 67 | |
| Investing (capex) | (19) | (18) | (16) | (13) | (9) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | 20 | 26 | 34 | 44 | 55 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 22 | 28 | 36 | 46 | 57 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13% | 7.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,576 | 77.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.