Models
NIPPON L I A M LTDNAM-INDIACapital Markets
₹728per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹728implied FY26 P/E 28.3× · EV/EBITDA 25.9×
Against CMP ₹1,189.60−38.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies35.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹556₹1,071
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹796₹1,270
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 9,324 |
| PV of terminal value | 37,183 |
| Enterprise value | 46,507 |
| less net debt | 17 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 46,524 |
| ÷ 63.93 crore shares | ₹728 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 752 | 810 | 880 | 965 | 1,071 |
| 10.50% | 692 | 740 | 797 | 865 | 949 |
| 11.00% | 640 | 680 | 728 | 784 | 851 |
| 11.50% | 595 | 629 | 669 | 716 | 771 |
| 12.00% | 556 | 585 | 619 | 658 | 704 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,189.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 559 · 723 · 935 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,350 | 1,643 | 2,231 | 2,709 | 3,291 | 3,999 | 4,858 | 5,903 | 7,172 |
| growth % | 3.3 | 21.7 | 35.8 | 21.4 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 795 | 994 | 1,442 | 1,795 | 2,182 | 2,651 | 3,221 | 3,914 | 4,755 |
| margin % | 58.9 | 60.5 | 64.6 | 66.3 | 66.3 | 66.3 | 66.3 | 66.3 | 66.3 |
| less depreciation | (30) | (29) | (31) | (40) | (49) | (60) | (73) | (89) | (108) |
| EBIT | 765 | 965 | 1,411 | 1,755 | 2,133 | 2,591 | 3,148 | 3,825 | 4,648 |
| less tax on EBIT | (395) | (480) | (583) | (708) | (861) | (1,046) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,360 | 1,653 | 2,008 | 2,440 | 2,964 | 3,602 | |||
| add depreciation | 30 | 29 | 31 | 40 | 49 | 60 | 73 | 89 | 108 |
| less capex | (10) | (12) | (539) | (79) | (95) | (105) | (114) | (122) | (129) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 574 | 766 | 661 | — | 1,607 | 1,963 | 2,399 | 2,931 | 3,580 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,525 | 1,679 | 1,848 | 2,034 | 2,239 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 79% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,755 | 2,133 | 2,591 | 3,148 | 3,825 | 4,648 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 2,133 | 2,591 | 3,148 | 3,825 | 4,648 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,529 | 1,653 | 2,008 | 2,440 | 2,964 | 3,602 |
| Dividends | (1,208) | (1,306) | (1,586) | (1,928) | (2,342) | (2,845) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 17 | 318 | 694 | 1,165 | 1,754 | 2,489 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,176 | 5,222 | 5,267 | 5,308 | 5,342 | 5,364 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 4,659 | 5,006 | 5,428 | 5,940 | 6,563 | 7,319 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,702 | 2,068 | 2,513 | 3,053 | 3,709 | |
| Investing (capex) | (95) | (105) | (114) | (122) | (129) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,306) | (1,586) | (1,928) | (2,342) | (2,845) | |
| Net change in cash | 301 | 377 | 471 | 589 | 735 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,607 | 1,963 | 2,399 | 2,931 | 3,580 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 66.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹728 | (38.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.