Models
NIRLON LTDNIRLONCommercial Services & Supplies
₹721per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹721implied FY26 P/E 18.8× · EV/EBITDA 14.7×
Against CMP ₹613.15+17.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies1.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹537₹1,089
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹516₹657
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,045 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,594 |
| Enterprise value | 7,639 |
| less net debt | (1,137) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,502 |
| ÷ 9.01 crore shares | ₹721 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 749 | 811 | 885 | 976 | 1,089 |
| 10.50% | 684 | 735 | 796 | 869 | 958 |
| 11.00% | 628 | 671 | 721 | 781 | 853 |
| 11.50% | 579 | 616 | 659 | 708 | 767 |
| 12.00% | 537 | 569 | 605 | 647 | 695 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹613.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 587 · 717 · 877 |
| Draws below the CMP | 16% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 573 | 603 | 636 | 669 | 703 | 738 | 775 | 813 | 854 |
| growth % | 49.1 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 458 | 477 | 503 | 521 | 547 | 575 | 603 | 634 | 665 |
| margin % | 80.0 | 79.1 | 79.1 | 77.9 | 77.9 | 77.9 | 77.9 | 77.9 | 77.9 |
| less depreciation | (103) | (56) | (56) | (56) | (58) | (61) | (64) | (68) | (71) |
| EBIT | 355 | 421 | 447 | 466 | 489 | 513 | 539 | 566 | 594 |
| less tax on EBIT | (33) | (34) | (36) | (38) | (40) | (42) | |||
| NOPAT | 433 | 455 | 478 | 501 | 526 | 553 | |||
| add depreciation | 103 | 56 | 56 | 56 | 58 | 61 | 64 | 68 | 71 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (47) | 0 | 0 | (18) | (39) | (61) | (85) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 392 | 428 | 465 | — | 513 | 520 | 527 | 533 | 539 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 487 | 445 | 406 | 370 | 337 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,147, dividends at 67.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 466 | 489 | 513 | 539 | 566 | 594 |
| Interest at 9.4% on debt | (108) | (108) | (108) | (108) | (108) | |
| Profit before tax | 381 | 406 | 431 | 458 | 487 | |
| Profit after tax | 346 | 355 | 377 | 401 | 426 | 453 |
| Dividends | (234) | (240) | (255) | (272) | (289) | (306) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | 183 | 348 | 503 | 647 | 779 |
| Working capital | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) |
| Net block and other assets | 2,253 | 2,195 | 2,152 | 2,126 | 2,119 | 2,133 |
| Debt | 1,147 | 1,147 | 1,147 | 1,147 | 1,147 | 1,147 |
| Equity | 469 | 583 | 705 | 835 | 972 | 1,118 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 413 | 439 | 465 | 494 | 523 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (18) | (39) | (61) | (85) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (240) | (255) | (272) | (289) | (306) | |
| Net change in cash | 173 | 165 | 155 | 144 | 132 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 413 | 420 | 427 | 433 | 438 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 77.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹721 | 17.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.