Models
NITIN SPINNERS LIMITEDNITINSPINTextiles & Apparels
₹346per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹346implied FY26 P/E 9.2× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹652.00−46.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3166%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹239₹560
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹302₹666
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,047 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,021 |
| Enterprise value | 3,068 |
| less net debt | (1,122) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,946 |
| ÷ 5.62 crore shares | ₹346 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 363 | 399 | 442 | 494 | 560 |
| 10.50% | 325 | 354 | 390 | 432 | 483 |
| 11.00% | 292 | 317 | 346 | 381 | 422 |
| 11.50% | 264 | 285 | 309 | 338 | 372 |
| 12.00% | 239 | 257 | 278 | 302 | 330 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹652.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 258 · 347 · 449 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,407 | 2,906 | 3,306 | 3,214 | 3,117 | 3,024 | 2,933 | 2,845 | 2,760 |
| growth % | (10.6) | 20.7 | 13.8 | (2.8) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) |
| EBITDA | 297 | 377 | 471 | 453 | 440 | 426 | 414 | 401 | 389 |
| margin % | 12.3 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 14.1 |
| less depreciation | (87) | (118) | (148) | (148) | (143) | (139) | (135) | (131) | (127) |
| EBIT | 210 | 259 | 324 | 305 | 296 | 287 | 279 | 270 | 262 |
| less tax on EBIT | (78) | (76) | (74) | (71) | (69) | (67) | |||
| NOPAT | 227 | 220 | 214 | 207 | 201 | 195 | |||
| add depreciation | 87 | 118 | 148 | 148 | 143 | 139 | 135 | 131 | 127 |
| less capex | (87) | (817) | (16) | (60) | (59) | (85) | (109) | (131) | (152) |
| less working-capital build | — | 28 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 25 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 107 | (653) | 291 | — | 333 | 295 | 260 | 226 | 195 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 316 | 253 | 200 | 157 | 122 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,124, dividends at 9.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 305 | 296 | 287 | 279 | 270 | 262 |
| Interest at 6.2% on debt | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | |
| Profit before tax | 226 | 218 | 209 | 201 | 192 | |
| Profit after tax | 178 | 168 | 162 | 155 | 149 | 143 |
| Dividends | (17) | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (14) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 268 | 496 | 689 | 849 | 979 |
| Working capital | 938 | 910 | 882 | 856 | 830 | 805 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,974 | 1,890 | 1,835 | 1,809 | 1,810 | 1,835 |
| Debt | 1,124 | 1,124 | 1,124 | 1,124 | 1,124 | 1,124 |
| Equity | 1,471 | 1,623 | 1,770 | 1,910 | 2,045 | 2,175 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 340 | 328 | 317 | 306 | 295 | |
| Investing (capex) | (59) | (85) | (109) | (131) | (152) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (14) | |
| Net change in cash | 265 | 228 | 193 | 160 | 129 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 281 | 243 | 208 | 174 | 143 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -3% | 14.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹346 | (46.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.