Models
NITTA GELATIN INDIA LTD.NITTAGELAChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹1,705per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,705implied FY26 P/E 15.9× · EV/EBITDA 11.3×
Against CMP ₹1,649.00+3.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies9.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,298₹2,517
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹837₹2,087
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 289 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,249 |
| Enterprise value | 1,538 |
| less net debt | 10 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,548 |
| ÷ 0.91 crore shares | ₹1,705 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,763 | 1,900 | 2,065 | 2,266 | 2,517 |
| 10.50% | 1,620 | 1,734 | 1,868 | 2,030 | 2,227 |
| 11.00% | 1,497 | 1,593 | 1,705 | 1,837 | 1,996 |
| 11.50% | 1,391 | 1,473 | 1,567 | 1,677 | 1,807 |
| 12.00% | 1,298 | 1,369 | 1,449 | 1,541 | 1,649 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,649.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,379 · 1,689 · 2,072 |
| Draws below the CMP | 44% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 565 | 533 | 533 | 588 | 650 | 718 | 794 | 877 | 969 |
| growth % | 11.7 | (5.8) | (0.0) | 10.4 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 116 | 123 | 115 | 136 | 151 | 167 | 184 | 203 | 225 |
| margin % | 20.5 | 23.0 | 21.6 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 |
| less depreciation | (14) | (15) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (18) | (20) | (22) | (24) |
| EBIT | 102 | 108 | 101 | 121 | 135 | 149 | 164 | 182 | 201 |
| less tax on EBIT | (32) | (35) | (39) | (43) | (48) | (53) | |||
| NOPAT | 90 | 99 | 110 | 121 | 134 | 148 | |||
| add depreciation | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 |
| less capex | (22) | (16) | (34) | (52) | (58) | (53) | (47) | (39) | (29) |
| less working-capital build | — | (15) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (23) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 79 | 83 | 41 | — | 42 | 57 | 75 | 96 | 120 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 40 | 49 | 58 | 67 | 75 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4, dividends at 10.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 121 | 135 | 149 | 164 | 182 | 201 |
| Interest at 5.1% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 134 | 148 | 164 | 181 | 200 | |
| Profit after tax | 97 | 99 | 109 | 121 | 134 | 148 |
| Dividends | (10) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (15) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 14 | 46 | 92 | 155 | 237 | 341 |
| Working capital | 145 | 160 | 177 | 196 | 216 | 239 |
| Net block and other assets | 427 | 468 | 504 | 531 | 548 | 553 |
| Debt | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Equity | 515 | 604 | 702 | 811 | 931 | 1,063 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 100 | 111 | 122 | 135 | 149 | |
| Investing (capex) | (58) | (53) | (47) | (39) | (29) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (15) | |
| Net change in cash | 32 | 46 | 62 | 82 | 105 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 42 | 57 | 75 | 96 | 120 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 23.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,705 | 3.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.