Models
NLC INDIA LIMITEDNLCINDIAPower
₹257per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹257implied FY26 P/E 10.7× · EV/EBITDA 11.2×
Against CMP ₹264.85−3.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies15.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3168%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹165₹439
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹230₹388
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 20,077 |
| PV of terminal value | 42,637 |
| Enterprise value | 62,714 |
| less net debt | (27,090) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 35,624 |
| ÷ 138.66 crore shares | ₹257 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 271 | 302 | 338 | 383 | 439 |
| 10.50% | 238 | 264 | 294 | 330 | 374 |
| 11.00% | 210 | 232 | 257 | 286 | 322 |
| 11.50% | 186 | 205 | 226 | 250 | 279 |
| 12.00% | 165 | 181 | 199 | 219 | 243 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹264.85; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 143 · 252 · 381 |
| Draws below the CMP | 56% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16,165 | 12,999 | 15,283 | 17,490 | 20,026 | 22,929 | 26,254 | 30,061 | 34,420 |
| growth % | 35.3 | (19.6) | 17.6 | 14.4 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| EBITDA | 5,829 | 3,536 | 4,840 | 5,588 | 6,408 | 7,337 | 8,401 | 9,619 | 11,014 |
| margin % | 36.1 | 27.2 | 31.7 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 |
| less depreciation | (1,801) | (1,825) | (1,884) | (2,379) | (2,723) | (3,118) | (3,571) | (4,088) | (4,681) |
| EBIT | 4,028 | 1,711 | 2,956 | 3,210 | 3,685 | 4,219 | 4,831 | 5,531 | 6,333 |
| less tax on EBIT | (116) | (133) | (152) | (174) | (199) | (228) | |||
| NOPAT | 3,094 | 3,552 | 4,067 | 4,657 | 5,332 | 6,105 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,801 | 1,825 | 1,884 | 2,379 | 2,723 | 3,118 | 3,571 | 4,088 | 4,681 |
| less capex | (2,603) | (3,259) | (7,340) | 0 | 0 | (936) | (2,142) | (3,679) | (5,617) |
| less working-capital build | — | (619) | (709) | (811) | (929) | (1,064) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,158 | 2,364 | 1,637 | — | 5,657 | 5,541 | 5,274 | 4,812 | 4,105 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 5,369 | 4,738 | 4,063 | 3,340 | 2,567 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 27,802, dividends at 20.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3,210 | 3,685 | 4,219 | 4,831 | 5,531 | 6,333 |
| Interest at 4.9% on debt | (1,362) | (1,362) | (1,362) | (1,362) | (1,362) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,322 | 2,857 | 3,468 | 4,169 | 4,971 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,522 | 2,239 | 2,754 | 3,344 | 4,019 | 4,792 |
| Dividends | (736) | (468) | (576) | (699) | (840) | (1,002) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 711 | 4,587 | 8,240 | 11,501 | 14,160 | 15,951 |
| Working capital | 4,269 | 4,888 | 5,597 | 6,408 | 7,337 | 8,400 |
| Net block and other assets | 60,221 | 57,498 | 55,315 | 53,887 | 53,478 | 54,414 |
| Debt | 27,802 | 27,802 | 27,802 | 27,802 | 27,802 | 27,802 |
| Equity | 25,274 | 27,045 | 29,223 | 31,868 | 35,047 | 38,837 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,343 | 5,164 | 6,103 | 7,178 | 8,409 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (936) | (2,142) | (3,679) | (5,617) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (468) | (576) | (699) | (840) | (1,002) | |
| Net change in cash | 3,876 | 3,653 | 3,262 | 2,659 | 1,791 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 4,343 | 4,228 | 3,961 | 3,499 | 2,792 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14.5% | 32% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹257 | (3.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.