Models
NMDC LTD.NMDCMinerals & Mining
₹182per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹182implied FY26 P/E 21.5× · EV/EBITDA 17.9×
Against CMP ₹82.40+121.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(3.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹134₹278
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹72₹97
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 22,720 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,43,246 |
| Enterprise value | 1,65,966 |
| less net debt | (5,727) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,60,239 |
| ÷ 879.18 crore shares | ₹182 |
86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 189 | 205 | 225 | 248 | 278 |
| 10.50% | 172 | 186 | 202 | 221 | 244 |
| 11.00% | 158 | 169 | 182 | 198 | 217 |
| 11.50% | 145 | 155 | 166 | 179 | 194 |
| 12.00% | 134 | 143 | 152 | 163 | 176 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹82.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 135 · 179 · 236 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25,882 | 17,667 | 21,308 | 32,071 | 41,692 | 54,200 | 70,460 | 91,598 | 1,19,077 |
| growth % | 68.4 | (31.7) | 20.6 | 50.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 12,583 | 7,290 | 7,009 | 9,260 | 12,049 | 15,664 | 20,363 | 26,472 | 34,413 |
| margin % | 48.6 | 41.3 | 32.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 |
| less depreciation | (288) | (336) | (351) | (477) | (625) | (813) | (1,057) | (1,374) | (1,786) |
| EBIT | 12,295 | 6,954 | 6,659 | 8,782 | 11,424 | 14,851 | 19,306 | 25,098 | 32,627 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2,362) | (3,073) | (3,995) | (5,193) | (6,751) | (8,777) | |||
| NOPAT | 6,420 | 8,351 | 10,856 | 14,113 | 18,346 | 23,850 | |||
| add depreciation | 288 | 336 | 351 | 477 | 625 | 813 | 1,057 | 1,374 | 1,786 |
| less capex | 0 | (1,401) | (1,847) | (3,171) | (4,128) | (4,268) | (4,122) | (3,504) | (2,143) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3,396) | (4,415) | (5,740) | (7,462) | (9,700) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 7,639 | 1,064 | 5,548 | — | 1,452 | 2,985 | 5,308 | 8,755 | 13,793 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,378 | 2,553 | 4,089 | 6,076 | 8,624 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5,874, dividends at 41.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 8,782 | 11,424 | 14,851 | 19,306 | 25,098 | 32,627 |
| Interest at 2.6% on debt | (153) | (153) | (153) | (153) | (153) | |
| Profit before tax | 11,271 | 14,698 | 19,153 | 24,945 | 32,474 | |
| Profit after tax | 7,450 | 8,239 | 10,744 | 14,001 | 18,235 | 23,739 |
| Dividends | (3,077) | (3,403) | (4,437) | (5,782) | (7,531) | (9,804) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 148 | (1,915) | (3,478) | (4,064) | (2,952) | 925 |
| Working capital | 11,326 | 14,722 | 19,137 | 24,877 | 32,339 | 42,039 |
| Net block and other assets | 36,847 | 40,349 | 43,804 | 46,869 | 48,999 | 49,356 |
| Debt | 5,874 | 5,874 | 5,874 | 5,874 | 5,874 | 5,874 |
| Equity | 34,076 | 38,912 | 45,219 | 53,438 | 64,142 | 78,076 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 5,468 | 7,142 | 9,318 | 12,147 | 15,825 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4,128) | (4,268) | (4,122) | (3,504) | (2,143) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3,403) | (4,437) | (5,782) | (7,531) | (9,804) | |
| Net change in cash | (2,062) | (1,564) | (586) | 1,113 | 3,877 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,341 | 2,874 | 5,196 | 8,643 | 13,681 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 28.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹182 | 121.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.