Models
NMDC STEEL LIMITEDNSLNISPFerrous Metals
₹23per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹23implied FY26 P/E 73.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.4×
Against CMP ₹43.76−48.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3156%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹16₹35
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹33₹54
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,966 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,273 |
| Enterprise value | 11,239 |
| less net debt | (4,593) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,646 |
| ÷ 293.06 crore shares | ₹23 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 24 | 26 | 28 | 32 | 35 |
| 10.50% | 21 | 23 | 25 | 28 | 31 |
| 11.00% | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| 11.50% | 18 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 |
| 12.00% | 16 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 22 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹43.76; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 3 · 21 · 45 |
| Draws below the CMP | 89% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.35 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 3,049 | 8,503 | 13,642 | 17,734 | 23,055 | 29,971 | 38,962 | 50,651 |
| growth % | — | — | 178.9 | 60.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 0 | (1,437) | (1,788) | 1,518 | 1,969 | 2,559 | 3,327 | 4,325 | 5,622 |
| margin % | — | (47.1) | (21.0) | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| less depreciation | 0 | (553) | (953) | (1,042) | (1,348) | (1,752) | (2,278) | (2,961) | (3,849) |
| EBIT | 0 | (1,990) | (2,741) | 476 | 621 | 807 | 1,049 | 1,364 | 1,773 |
| less tax on EBIT | (107) | (140) | (182) | (236) | (307) | (399) | |||
| NOPAT | 369 | 481 | 625 | 813 | 1,057 | 1,374 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 553 | 953 | 1,042 | 1,348 | 1,752 | 2,278 | 2,961 | 3,849 |
| less capex | (2,155) | 0 | (428) | (271) | (355) | (871) | (1,666) | (2,860) | (4,619) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (639) | (2,733) | 1,538 | — | 1,474 | 1,506 | 1,424 | 1,158 | 604 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,399 | 1,288 | 1,097 | 804 | 378 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,602, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 476 | 621 | 807 | 1,049 | 1,364 | 1,773 |
| Interest at 9.3% on debt | (428) | (428) | (428) | (428) | (428) | |
| Profit before tax | 193 | 379 | 621 | 936 | 1,345 | |
| Profit after tax | 59 | 149 | 294 | 481 | 725 | 1,042 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | 1,151 | 2,326 | 3,418 | 4,245 | 4,517 |
| Working capital | (1,966) | (1,966) | (1,966) | (1,966) | (1,966) | (1,966) |
| Net block and other assets | 30,194 | 29,201 | 28,321 | 27,709 | 27,608 | 28,378 |
| Debt | 4,602 | 4,602 | 4,602 | 4,602 | 4,602 | 4,602 |
| Equity | 13,173 | 13,323 | 13,616 | 14,098 | 14,823 | 15,865 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,497 | 2,046 | 2,759 | 3,686 | 4,892 | |
| Investing (capex) | (355) | (871) | (1,666) | (2,860) | (4,619) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1,142 | 1,174 | 1,093 | 826 | 272 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,142 | 1,174 | 1,093 | 826 | 272 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 11.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹23 | (48.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.