Models
NOCIL LIMITEDNOCILChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹13per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹13implied FY26 P/E 3.2× · EV/EBITDA 1.9×
Against CMP ₹190.30−93.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31152%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹8₹22
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹125₹205
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (94) |
| PV of terminal value | 275 |
| Enterprise value | 180 |
| less net debt | 32 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 212 |
| ÷ 16.70 crore shares | ₹13 |
152% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 22 |
| 10.50% | 12 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 |
| 11.00% | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| 11.50% | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| 12.00% | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹190.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 8 · 13 · 18 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,617 | 1,445 | 1,393 | 1,303 | 1,238 | 1,176 | 1,117 | 1,061 | 1,008 |
| growth % | 2.9 | (10.6) | (3.6) | (6.4) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 253 | 195 | 137 | 95 | 90 | 86 | 82 | 77 | 74 |
| margin % | 15.6 | 13.5 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| less depreciation | (56) | (53) | (54) | (55) | (52) | (49) | (47) | (45) | (42) |
| EBIT | 197 | 142 | 84 | 41 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 31 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) | (9) | (8) | |||
| NOPAT | 30 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 23 | |||
| add depreciation | 56 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 45 | 42 |
| less capex | (29) | (34) | (123) | (174) | (165) | (132) | (102) | (75) | (51) |
| less working-capital build | — | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 253 | 166 | (97) | — | (70) | (42) | (17) | 6 | 26 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (66) | (36) | (13) | 4 | 17 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 60.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 41 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 31 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 38 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 31 | |
| Profit after tax | 56 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 23 |
| Dividends | (34) | (17) | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 32 | (55) | (113) | (146) | (154) | (142) |
| Working capital | 295 | 280 | 266 | 253 | 240 | 228 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,784 | 1,896 | 1,979 | 2,035 | 2,065 | 2,074 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,773 | 1,784 | 1,795 | 1,805 | 1,814 | 1,823 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 95 | 90 | 86 | 81 | 77 | |
| Investing (capex) | (165) | (132) | (102) | (75) | (51) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (17) | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) | |
| Net change in cash | (87) | (58) | (32) | (9) | 13 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (70) | (42) | (17) | 6 | 26 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 7.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹13 | (93.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.