Models
NOVA IRON & STEEL LTD.BSE 513566Industrial Products
₹429per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹429implied FY25 P/E 8.5× · EV/EBITDA 10.7×
Against CMP ₹18.46+2223.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3069%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹327₹631
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹11₹17
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 564 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,232 |
| Enterprise value | 1,796 |
| less net debt | (246) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,550 |
| ÷ 3.61 crore shares | ₹429 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 444 | 478 | 519 | 569 | 631 |
| 10.50% | 408 | 437 | 470 | 510 | 559 |
| 11.00% | 377 | 401 | 429 | 462 | 501 |
| 11.50% | 351 | 371 | 394 | 421 | 454 |
| 12.00% | 327 | 345 | 364 | 387 | 414 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹18.46; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 357 · 430 · 517 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.70 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 605 | 698 | 564 | 417 | 396 | 376 | 357 | 340 | 323 |
| growth % | 75.6 | 15.3 | (19.2) | (26.1) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 16 | 26 | (63) | 167 | 159 | 151 | 143 | 136 | 129 |
| margin % | 2.6 | 3.7 | (11.2) | 40.1 | 40.1 | 40.1 | 40.1 | 40.1 | 40.1 |
| less depreciation | (10) | (10) | (45) | (19) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) |
| EBIT | 6 | 16 | (108) | 148 | 140 | 133 | 127 | 120 | 114 |
| less tax on EBIT | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |||
| NOPAT | 157 | 149 | 142 | 135 | 128 | 122 | |||
| add depreciation | 10 | 10 | 45 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| less capex | (0) | (10) | (36) | 0 | 0 | (5) | (10) | (14) | (18) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 3 | 9 | (47) | — | 168 | 154 | 141 | 130 | 119 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 159 | 132 | 109 | 90 | 74 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 247, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 148 | 140 | 133 | 127 | 120 | 114 |
| Interest at 3.4% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 132 | 125 | 118 | 112 | 106 | |
| Profit after tax | 149 | 140 | 133 | 126 | 119 | 113 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 160 | 305 | 438 | 559 | 668 |
| Working capital | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) |
| Net block and other assets | 321 | 303 | 290 | 284 | 282 | 285 |
| Debt | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 247 |
| Equity | (11) | 129 | 262 | 388 | 507 | 620 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 159 | 151 | 143 | 135 | 128 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (5) | (10) | (14) | (18) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 159 | 145 | 133 | 121 | 110 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 159 | 145 | 133 | 121 | 110 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 40.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹429 | 2223.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.