Models
NOVARTIS INDIA LIMITEDNOVARTINDPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹396per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹396implied FY26 P/E 10.5× · EV/EBITDA 9.8×
Against CMP ₹2,366.00−83.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹316₹557
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹950₹2,589
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 258 |
| PV of terminal value | 668 |
| Enterprise value | 926 |
| less net debt | 52 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 978 |
| ÷ 2.47 crore shares | ₹396 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 408 | 435 | 468 | 507 | 557 |
| 10.50% | 380 | 402 | 429 | 461 | 500 |
| 11.00% | 356 | 374 | 396 | 422 | 454 |
| 11.50% | 334 | 350 | 369 | 391 | 416 |
| 12.00% | 316 | 330 | 346 | 364 | 385 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,366.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 343 · 397 · 461 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.75 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 379 | 335 | 356 | 354 | 353 | 351 | 349 | 347 | 346 |
| growth % | (5.3) | (11.5) | 6.3 | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) |
| EBITDA | 65 | 65 | 91 | 94 | 94 | 93 | 93 | 92 | 92 |
| margin % | 17.2 | 19.5 | 25.7 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | 59 | 63 | 89 | 92 | 92 | 91 | 91 | 90 | 90 |
| less tax on EBIT | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | (25) | (25) | |||
| NOPAT | 66 | 66 | 66 | 65 | 65 | 65 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 44 | 113 | 75 | — | 68 | 67 | 66 | 65 | 64 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 64 | 57 | 51 | 45 | 40 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 66.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 92 | 92 | 91 | 91 | 90 | 90 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 92 | 91 | 91 | 90 | 90 | |
| Profit after tax | 93 | 66 | 66 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
| Dividends | (62) | (44) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 53 | 77 | 100 | 123 | 145 | 167 |
| Working capital | 36 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| Net block and other assets | 890 | 888 | 887 | 886 | 886 | 887 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 818 | 840 | 862 | 884 | 906 | 928 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 68 | 68 | 68 | 67 | 67 | |
| Investing (capex) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (44) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 22 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 68 | 67 | 66 | 65 | 64 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -0.5% | 26.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹396 | (83.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.