Models
NRB BEARING LIMITEDNRBBEARINGAuto Components
₹116per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹116implied FY26 P/E 7.6× · EV/EBITDA 5.5×
Against CMP ₹516.80−77.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹84₹179
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹213₹518
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 211 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,035 |
| Enterprise value | 1,246 |
| less net debt | (127) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,119 |
| ÷ 9.69 crore shares | ₹116 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 120 | 131 | 143 | 159 | 179 |
| 10.50% | 109 | 118 | 128 | 141 | 156 |
| 11.00% | 99 | 107 | 116 | 126 | 138 |
| 11.50% | 91 | 98 | 105 | 113 | 123 |
| 12.00% | 84 | 89 | 96 | 103 | 111 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹516.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 67 · 114 · 161 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,057 | 1,094 | 1,199 | 1,335 | 1,489 | 1,660 | 1,851 | 2,064 | 2,301 |
| growth % | 12.0 | 3.5 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 164 | 361 | 147 | 225 | 252 | 281 | 313 | 349 | 389 |
| margin % | 15.5 | 33.0 | 12.3 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 |
| less depreciation | (41) | (43) | (48) | (57) | (64) | (71) | (80) | (89) | (99) |
| EBIT | 123 | 318 | 100 | 168 | 188 | 209 | 233 | 260 | 290 |
| less tax on EBIT | (42) | (47) | (52) | (58) | (65) | (72) | |||
| NOPAT | 126 | 141 | 157 | 175 | 195 | 217 | |||
| add depreciation | 41 | 43 | 48 | 57 | 64 | 71 | 80 | 89 | 99 |
| less capex | (41) | (49) | (82) | (105) | (118) | (120) | (121) | (121) | (119) |
| less working-capital build | — | (63) | (71) | (79) | (88) | (98) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 21 | 67 | 2 | — | 24 | 38 | 55 | 75 | 100 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 22 | 32 | 42 | 52 | 62 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 151, dividends at 68.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 168 | 188 | 209 | 233 | 260 | 290 |
| Interest at 5.1% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 180 | 201 | 225 | 252 | 282 | |
| Profit after tax | 143 | 135 | 151 | 169 | 189 | 212 |
| Dividends | (98) | (92) | (103) | (116) | (129) | (145) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 24 | (50) | (121) | (188) | (247) | (298) |
| Working capital | 552 | 615 | 686 | 765 | 853 | 951 |
| Net block and other assets | 779 | 833 | 881 | 923 | 955 | 974 |
| Debt | 151 | 151 | 151 | 151 | 151 | 151 |
| Equity | 983 | 1,026 | 1,074 | 1,127 | 1,187 | 1,254 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 136 | 152 | 170 | 190 | 213 | |
| Investing (capex) | (118) | (120) | (121) | (121) | (119) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (92) | (103) | (116) | (129) | (145) | |
| Net change in cash | (74) | (71) | (66) | (60) | (51) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 18 | 32 | 49 | 69 | 94 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 16.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹116 | (77.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.