Models
NTPC LTDNTPCPower
₹203per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹203implied FY26 P/E 7.1× · EV/EBITDA 8.3×
Against CMP ₹333.40−39.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies7.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹92₹426
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹316₹414
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 95,226 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,65,869 |
| Enterprise value | 4,61,095 |
| less net debt | (2,63,837) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,97,258 |
| ÷ 969.67 crore shares | ₹203 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 220 | 257 | 302 | 357 | 426 |
| 10.50% | 180 | 211 | 248 | 293 | 347 |
| 11.00% | 146 | 173 | 203 | 240 | 283 |
| 11.50% | 117 | 140 | 165 | 196 | 231 |
| 12.00% | 92 | 111 | 133 | 158 | 188 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹333.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 103 · 204 · 320 |
| Draws below the CMP | 92% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,76,207 | 1,78,501 | 1,88,138 | 1,87,385 | 1,86,448 | 1,85,515 | 1,84,588 | 1,83,665 | 1,82,747 |
| growth % | 32.8 | 1.3 | 5.4 | (0.4) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) |
| EBITDA | 47,729 | 51,093 | 54,128 | 55,286 | 55,002 | 54,727 | 54,453 | 54,181 | 53,910 |
| margin % | 27.1 | 28.6 | 28.8 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 |
| less depreciation | (14,792) | (16,204) | (17,401) | (19,629) | (19,577) | (19,479) | (19,382) | (19,285) | (19,188) |
| EBIT | 32,937 | 34,889 | 36,726 | 35,656 | 35,425 | 35,248 | 35,072 | 34,896 | 34,722 |
| less tax on EBIT | 4,243 | 4,216 | 4,195 | 4,174 | 4,153 | 4,132 | |||
| NOPAT | 39,900 | 39,641 | 39,442 | 39,245 | 39,049 | 38,854 | |||
| add depreciation | 14,792 | 16,204 | 17,401 | 19,629 | 19,577 | 19,479 | 19,382 | 19,285 | 19,188 |
| less capex | (24,819) | (30,816) | (41,283) | (44,050) | (43,815) | (38,541) | (33,318) | (28,147) | (23,026) |
| less working-capital build | — | 217 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 213 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 15,233 | 9,969 | 9,153 | — | 15,620 | 20,597 | 25,524 | 30,401 | 35,229 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 14,826 | 17,612 | 19,663 | 21,099 | 22,027 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,67,258, dividends at 32.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 35,656 | 35,425 | 35,248 | 35,072 | 34,896 | 34,722 |
| Interest at 5.4% on debt | (14,432) | (14,432) | (14,432) | (14,432) | (14,432) | |
| Profit before tax | 20,993 | 20,816 | 20,640 | 20,464 | 20,290 | |
| Profit after tax | 27,053 | 23,491 | 23,293 | 23,096 | 22,900 | 22,704 |
| Dividends | (8,759) | (7,611) | (7,547) | (7,483) | (7,419) | (7,356) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3,422 | (4,719) | (7,818) | (5,927) | 906 | 12,629 |
| Working capital | 43,484 | 43,266 | 43,050 | 42,835 | 42,621 | 42,407 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,11,738 | 5,35,977 | 5,55,038 | 5,68,975 | 5,77,837 | 5,81,674 |
| Debt | 2,67,258 | 2,67,258 | 2,67,258 | 2,67,258 | 2,67,258 | 2,67,258 |
| Equity | 2,11,153 | 2,27,033 | 2,42,779 | 2,58,392 | 2,73,872 | 2,89,220 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 43,286 | 42,989 | 42,693 | 42,399 | 42,106 | |
| Investing (capex) | (43,815) | (38,541) | (33,318) | (28,147) | (23,026) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7,611) | (7,547) | (7,483) | (7,419) | (7,356) | |
| Net change in cash | (8,141) | (3,099) | 1,892 | 6,832 | 11,724 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (530) | 4,448 | 9,375 | 14,252 | 19,080 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -0.5% | 29.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹203 | (39.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.