Models
NUCLEUS SOFTWARE EXPORTSNUCLEUSIT - Software
₹428per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹428implied FY26 P/E 10.7× · EV/EBITDA 10.1×
Against CMP ₹694.30−38.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies26.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹338₹607
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹682₹1,085
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 248 |
| PV of terminal value | 799 |
| Enterprise value | 1,046 |
| less net debt | 80 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,126 |
| ÷ 2.63 crore shares | ₹428 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 441 | 471 | 507 | 552 | 607 |
| 10.50% | 409 | 434 | 464 | 500 | 543 |
| 11.00% | 382 | 403 | 428 | 457 | 492 |
| 11.50% | 358 | 376 | 397 | 421 | 450 |
| 12.00% | 338 | 353 | 371 | 391 | 415 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹694.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 357 · 424 · 508 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 634 | 826 | 832 | 876 | 924 | 975 | 1,029 | 1,085 | 1,145 |
| growth % | 27.6 | 30.3 | 0.7 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 157 | 220 | 168 | 104 | 109 | 115 | 121 | 128 | 135 |
| margin % | 24.7 | 26.7 | 20.2 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| less depreciation | (19) | (15) | (15) | (16) | (18) | (19) | (20) | (21) | (22) |
| EBIT | 138 | 206 | 154 | 87 | 91 | 97 | 102 | 107 | 113 |
| less tax on EBIT | (19) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (24) | (25) | |||
| NOPAT | 68 | 71 | 75 | 79 | 84 | 88 | |||
| add depreciation | 19 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| less capex | (4) | (29) | (15) | (28) | (30) | (29) | (28) | (27) | (26) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 46 | 193 | 136 | — | 54 | 59 | 64 | 70 | 77 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 51 | 50 | 50 | 49 | 48 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 28.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 87 | 91 | 97 | 102 | 107 | 113 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 91 | 97 | 102 | 107 | 113 | |
| Profit after tax | 117 | 71 | 75 | 79 | 84 | 88 |
| Dividends | (33) | (20) | (21) | (22) | (24) | (25) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 80 | 113 | 151 | 193 | 240 | 292 |
| Working capital | 103 | 109 | 115 | 121 | 128 | 135 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,083 | 1,095 | 1,106 | 1,114 | 1,121 | 1,125 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 907 | 959 | 1,013 | 1,070 | 1,130 | 1,193 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 83 | 88 | 93 | 98 | 103 | |
| Investing (capex) | (30) | (29) | (28) | (27) | (26) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (20) | (21) | (22) | (24) | (25) | |
| Net change in cash | 33 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 52 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 54 | 59 | 64 | 70 | 77 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 11.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹428 | (38.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.