Models
NUVAMA WEALTH MANAGE LTDNUVAMACapital Markets
₹2,240per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,240implied FY26 P/E 19.3× · EV/EBITDA 16.5×
Against CMP ₹1,744.90+28.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies5.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,739₹3,238
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,097₹2,066
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 9,477 |
| PV of terminal value | 30,827 |
| Enterprise value | 40,304 |
| less net debt | 581 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 40,885 |
| ÷ 18.26 crore shares | ₹2,240 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,313 | 2,481 | 2,683 | 2,930 | 3,238 |
| 10.50% | 2,136 | 2,276 | 2,441 | 2,639 | 2,882 |
| 11.00% | 1,985 | 2,102 | 2,240 | 2,402 | 2,597 |
| 11.50% | 1,854 | 1,954 | 2,069 | 2,204 | 2,364 |
| 12.00% | 1,739 | 1,825 | 1,924 | 2,037 | 2,170 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,744.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,840 · 2,229 · 2,702 |
| Draws below the CMP | 5% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.50 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,151 | 4,158 | 4,631 | 5,163 | 5,757 | 6,419 | 7,157 | 7,980 |
| growth % | — | 32.0 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,559 | 2,216 | 2,441 | 2,721 | 3,034 | 3,383 | 3,772 | 4,206 |
| margin % | 49.5 | 53.3 | 52.7 | 52.7 | 52.7 | 52.7 | 52.7 | 52.7 |
| less depreciation | (136) | (94) | (113) | (124) | (138) | (154) | (172) | (192) |
| EBIT | 1,423 | 2,122 | 2,329 | 2,597 | 2,896 | 3,229 | 3,600 | 4,014 |
| less tax on EBIT | (585) | (652) | (727) | (810) | (904) | (1,008) | ||
| NOPAT | 1,744 | 1,945 | 2,169 | 2,418 | 2,696 | 3,007 | ||
| add depreciation | 136 | 94 | 113 | 124 | 138 | 154 | 172 | 192 |
| less capex | (81) | (33) | (29) | (31) | (67) | (112) | (165) | (230) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1,739) | (404) | — | 2,038 | 2,240 | 2,461 | 2,703 | 2,968 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 1,935 | 1,915 | 1,896 | 1,876 | 1,856 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 48.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,329 | 2,597 | 2,896 | 3,229 | 3,600 | 4,014 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 2,597 | 2,896 | 3,229 | 3,600 | 4,014 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,041 | 1,945 | 2,169 | 2,418 | 2,696 | 3,007 |
| Dividends | (501) | (936) | (1,043) | (1,163) | (1,297) | (1,446) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 581 | 1,683 | 2,880 | 4,177 | 5,583 | 7,105 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 33,910 | 33,817 | 33,747 | 33,704 | 33,698 | 33,736 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 4,123 | 5,133 | 6,258 | 7,514 | 8,913 | 10,473 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,069 | 2,307 | 2,572 | 2,868 | 3,198 | |
| Investing (capex) | (31) | (67) | (112) | (165) | (230) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (936) | (1,043) | (1,163) | (1,297) | (1,446) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,103 | 1,196 | 1,297 | 1,406 | 1,522 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,038 | 2,240 | 2,461 | 2,703 | 2,968 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 52.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,240 | 28.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.