Models
NUVOCO VISTAS CORP LTDNUVOCOCement & Cement Products
₹159per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹159implied FY26 P/E 14.7× · EV/EBITDA 5.6×
Against CMP ₹329.10−51.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies21.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹100₹276
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹276₹456
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,070 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,049 |
| Enterprise value | 10,120 |
| less net debt | (4,453) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,667 |
| ÷ 35.72 crore shares | ₹159 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 168 | 187 | 211 | 240 | 276 |
| 10.50% | 147 | 163 | 182 | 206 | 234 |
| 11.00% | 129 | 143 | 159 | 178 | 200 |
| 11.50% | 113 | 125 | 139 | 154 | 173 |
| 12.00% | 100 | 110 | 121 | 135 | 150 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹329.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 80 · 156 · 243 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.36 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,586 | 10,733 | 10,357 | 11,338 | 12,415 | 13,595 | 14,886 | 16,301 | 17,849 |
| growth % | 13.6 | 1.4 | (3.5) | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 805 | 1,624 | 1,372 | 1,809 | 1,986 | 2,175 | 2,382 | 2,608 | 2,856 |
| margin % | 7.6 | 15.1 | 13.2 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| less depreciation | (951) | (919) | (869) | (884) | (968) | (1,060) | (1,161) | (1,271) | (1,392) |
| EBIT | (147) | 705 | 503 | 925 | 1,018 | 1,115 | 1,221 | 1,337 | 1,464 |
| less tax on EBIT | (320) | (352) | (386) | (422) | (462) | (506) | |||
| NOPAT | 605 | 666 | 729 | 798 | 874 | 957 | |||
| add depreciation | 951 | 919 | 869 | 884 | 968 | 1,060 | 1,161 | 1,271 | 1,392 |
| less capex | (486) | (581) | (350) | (710) | (782) | (960) | (1,166) | (1,401) | (1,671) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,225 | 1,011 | 978 | — | 852 | 829 | 794 | 745 | 679 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 809 | 709 | 612 | 517 | 424 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,541, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 925 | 1,018 | 1,115 | 1,221 | 1,337 | 1,464 |
| Interest at 9.5% on debt | (431) | (431) | (431) | (431) | (431) | |
| Profit before tax | 587 | 683 | 789 | 905 | 1,032 | |
| Profit after tax | 359 | 384 | 447 | 516 | 592 | 675 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 88 | 658 | 1,205 | 1,717 | 2,179 | 2,576 |
| Working capital | (155) | (155) | (155) | (155) | (155) | (155) |
| Net block and other assets | 20,366 | 20,180 | 20,080 | 20,085 | 20,214 | 20,493 |
| Debt | 4,541 | 4,541 | 4,541 | 4,541 | 4,541 | 4,541 |
| Equity | 10,229 | 10,612 | 11,059 | 11,576 | 12,168 | 12,843 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,352 | 1,507 | 1,677 | 1,863 | 2,067 | |
| Investing (capex) | (782) | (960) | (1,166) | (1,401) | (1,671) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 570 | 547 | 512 | 462 | 397 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 570 | 547 | 512 | 462 | 397 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 16% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹159 | (51.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.