Models
OBEROI REALTY LIMITEDOBEROIRLTYRealty
₹743per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹743implied FY26 P/E 8.9× · EV/EBITDA 8.9×
Against CMP ₹1,741.10−57.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹547₹1,133
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,391₹1,986
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,608 |
| PV of terminal value | 24,042 |
| Enterprise value | 29,650 |
| less net debt | (2,641) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 27,009 |
| ÷ 36.36 crore shares | ₹743 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 771 | 837 | 916 | 1,012 | 1,133 |
| 10.50% | 702 | 757 | 821 | 899 | 994 |
| 11.00% | 643 | 689 | 743 | 806 | 883 |
| 11.50% | 592 | 631 | 676 | 729 | 792 |
| 12.00% | 547 | 581 | 620 | 664 | 716 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,741.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 521 · 734 · 955 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,193 | 4,496 | 5,286 | 6,009 | 6,820 | 7,741 | 8,786 | 9,972 | 11,318 |
| growth % | 55.6 | 7.2 | 17.6 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| EBITDA | 2,112 | 2,381 | 3,103 | 3,335 | 3,785 | 4,296 | 4,876 | 5,535 | 6,282 |
| margin % | 50.4 | 53.0 | 58.7 | 55.5 | 55.5 | 55.5 | 55.5 | 55.5 | 55.5 |
| less depreciation | (40) | (190) | (88) | (131) | (150) | (170) | (193) | (219) | (249) |
| EBIT | 2,072 | 2,191 | 3,015 | 3,204 | 3,635 | 4,126 | 4,683 | 5,315 | 6,033 |
| less tax on EBIT | (756) | (858) | (974) | (1,105) | (1,254) | (1,424) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,448 | 2,777 | 3,152 | 3,578 | 4,061 | 4,609 | |||
| add depreciation | 40 | 190 | 88 | 131 | 150 | 170 | 193 | 219 | 249 |
| less capex | (14) | 0 | 0 | (637) | (723) | (667) | (582) | (462) | (299) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1,352) | (1,535) | (1,742) | (1,977) | (2,244) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (2,397) | 2,810 | 2,163 | — | 852 | 1,121 | 1,447 | 1,841 | 2,315 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 809 | 959 | 1,115 | 1,278 | 1,447 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,816, dividends at 11.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3,204 | 3,635 | 4,126 | 4,683 | 5,315 | 6,033 |
| Interest at 7.9% on debt | (222) | (222) | (222) | (222) | (222) | |
| Profit before tax | 3,413 | 3,903 | 4,460 | 5,093 | 5,810 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,508 | 2,607 | 2,982 | 3,408 | 3,891 | 4,439 |
| Dividends | (291) | (302) | (346) | (395) | (451) | (515) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 176 | 555 | 1,161 | 2,043 | 3,263 | 4,893 |
| Working capital | 10,015 | 11,367 | 12,902 | 14,644 | 16,621 | 18,865 |
| Net block and other assets | 15,138 | 15,711 | 16,207 | 16,596 | 16,838 | 16,888 |
| Debt | 2,816 | 2,816 | 2,816 | 2,816 | 2,816 | 2,816 |
| Equity | 17,922 | 20,227 | 22,863 | 25,875 | 29,315 | 33,239 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,405 | 1,618 | 1,859 | 2,133 | 2,444 | |
| Investing (capex) | (723) | (667) | (582) | (462) | (299) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (302) | (346) | (395) | (451) | (515) | |
| Net change in cash | 380 | 605 | 882 | 1,220 | 1,630 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 682 | 951 | 1,277 | 1,671 | 2,145 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13.5% | 55.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹743 | (57.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.