Models
OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP.ONGCOil
₹349per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹349implied FY26 P/E 10.1× · EV/EBITDA 5.6×
Against CMP ₹232.50+50.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(8.4)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹250₹545
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹228₹308
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,63,351 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,15,936 |
| Enterprise value | 5,79,287 |
| less net debt | (1,40,501) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,38,786 |
| ÷ 1,258.03 crore shares | ₹349 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 363 | 396 | 436 | 484 | 545 |
| 10.50% | 329 | 356 | 388 | 427 | 475 |
| 11.00% | 299 | 322 | 349 | 381 | 419 |
| 11.50% | 273 | 293 | 315 | 342 | 373 |
| 12.00% | 250 | 267 | 287 | 309 | 335 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹232.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 255 · 350 · 457 |
| Draws below the CMP | 5% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,84,829 | 6,43,037 | 6,63,262 | 6,62,247 | 6,62,247 | 6,62,247 | 6,62,247 | 6,62,247 | 6,62,247 |
| growth % | 28.8 | (6.1) | 3.1 | (0.2) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBITDA | 67,389 | 1,01,199 | 88,710 | 1,02,684 | 1,02,648 | 1,02,648 | 1,02,648 | 1,02,648 | 1,02,648 |
| margin % | 9.8 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| less depreciation | (24,557) | (28,763) | (35,206) | (37,391) | (37,086) | (37,086) | (37,086) | (37,086) | (37,086) |
| EBIT | 42,832 | 72,436 | 53,504 | 65,293 | 65,562 | 65,562 | 65,562 | 65,562 | 65,562 |
| less tax on EBIT | (18,021) | (18,095) | (18,095) | (18,095) | (18,095) | (18,095) | |||
| NOPAT | 47,272 | 47,467 | 47,467 | 47,467 | 47,467 | 47,467 | |||
| add depreciation | 24,557 | 28,763 | 35,206 | 37,391 | 37,086 | 37,086 | 37,086 | 37,086 | 37,086 |
| less capex | (36,792) | (37,916) | (41,031) | (41,282) | (41,059) | (41,920) | (42,781) | (43,642) | (44,503) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 47,419 | 61,347 | 49,837 | — | 43,494 | 42,633 | 41,772 | 40,911 | 40,050 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 41,282 | 36,455 | 32,179 | 28,393 | 25,041 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,42,055, dividends at 41% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 65,293 | 65,562 | 65,562 | 65,562 | 65,562 | 65,562 |
| Interest at 8.8% on debt | (12,501) | (12,501) | (12,501) | (12,501) | (12,501) | |
| Profit before tax | 53,062 | 53,062 | 53,062 | 53,062 | 53,062 | |
| Profit after tax | 41,424 | 38,417 | 38,417 | 38,417 | 38,417 | 38,417 |
| Dividends | (16,980) | (15,751) | (15,751) | (15,751) | (15,751) | (15,751) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,554 | 20,247 | 38,078 | 55,049 | 71,158 | 86,407 |
| Working capital | 39,916 | 39,916 | 39,916 | 39,916 | 39,916 | 39,916 |
| Net block and other assets | 7,50,435 | 7,54,408 | 7,59,242 | 7,64,938 | 7,71,494 | 7,78,911 |
| Debt | 1,42,055 | 1,42,055 | 1,42,055 | 1,42,055 | 1,42,055 | 1,42,055 |
| Equity | 4,09,693 | 4,32,359 | 4,55,025 | 4,77,691 | 5,00,357 | 5,23,022 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 75,502 | 75,502 | 75,502 | 75,502 | 75,502 | |
| Investing (capex) | (41,059) | (41,920) | (42,781) | (43,642) | (44,503) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (15,751) | (15,751) | (15,751) | (15,751) | (15,751) | |
| Net change in cash | 18,692 | 17,831 | 16,970 | 16,110 | 15,249 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 34,443 | 33,582 | 32,721 | 31,860 | 30,999 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0% | 15.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹349 | 50.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.