Models
OIL INDIA LTDOILOil
₹339per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹339implied FY26 P/E 6.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.6×
Against CMP ₹489.80−30.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies10.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3168%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹228₹562
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹390₹531
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 28,945 |
| PV of terminal value | 60,892 |
| Enterprise value | 89,837 |
| less net debt | (34,636) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 55,201 |
| ÷ 162.66 crore shares | ₹339 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 356 | 394 | 438 | 493 | 562 |
| 10.50% | 317 | 348 | 384 | 428 | 482 |
| 11.00% | 283 | 309 | 339 | 375 | 419 |
| 11.50% | 253 | 276 | 301 | 331 | 366 |
| 12.00% | 228 | 247 | 268 | 294 | 323 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹489.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 246 · 335 · 443 |
| Draws below the CMP | 96% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41,039 | 36,304 | 36,164 | 37,050 | 37,976 | 38,925 | 39,898 | 40,896 | 41,918 |
| growth % | 36.7 | (11.5) | (0.4) | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 15,268 | 10,139 | 11,216 | 10,446 | 10,709 | 10,977 | 11,251 | 11,533 | 11,821 |
| margin % | 37.2 | 27.9 | 31.0 | 28.2 | 28.2 | 28.2 | 28.2 | 28.2 | 28.2 |
| less depreciation | (1,947) | (2,129) | (2,318) | (2,712) | (2,772) | (2,842) | (2,913) | (2,985) | (3,060) |
| EBIT | 13,321 | 8,010 | 8,898 | 7,734 | 7,937 | 8,135 | 8,339 | 8,547 | 8,761 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,856) | (1,905) | (1,952) | (2,001) | (2,051) | (2,103) | |||
| NOPAT | 5,877 | 6,032 | 6,183 | 6,337 | 6,496 | 6,658 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,947 | 2,129 | 2,318 | 2,712 | 2,772 | 2,842 | 2,913 | 2,985 | 3,060 |
| less capex | (8,525) | (12,063) | (12,969) | 0 | 0 | (852) | (1,748) | (2,687) | (3,672) |
| less working-capital build | — | (166) | (170) | (174) | (179) | (183) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,886 | (1,130) | (1,637) | — | 8,639 | 8,002 | 7,328 | 6,616 | 5,863 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 8,199 | 6,842 | 5,645 | 4,592 | 3,666 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 35,959, dividends at 34.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 7,734 | 7,937 | 8,135 | 8,339 | 8,547 | 8,761 |
| Interest at 3.7% on debt | (1,330) | (1,330) | (1,330) | (1,330) | (1,330) | |
| Profit before tax | 6,606 | 6,805 | 7,008 | 7,217 | 7,430 | |
| Profit after tax | 6,620 | 5,021 | 5,172 | 5,326 | 5,485 | 5,647 |
| Dividends | (2,256) | (1,712) | (1,764) | (1,816) | (1,870) | (1,926) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,323 | 7,239 | 12,466 | 16,967 | 20,701 | 23,628 |
| Working capital | 6,638 | 6,804 | 6,974 | 7,148 | 7,327 | 7,510 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,15,886 | 1,13,114 | 1,11,125 | 1,09,960 | 1,09,661 | 1,10,273 |
| Debt | 35,959 | 35,959 | 35,959 | 35,959 | 35,959 | 35,959 |
| Equity | 63,802 | 67,111 | 70,519 | 74,029 | 77,644 | 81,365 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 7,627 | 7,843 | 8,065 | 8,292 | 8,524 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (852) | (1,748) | (2,687) | (3,672) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,712) | (1,764) | (1,816) | (1,870) | (1,926) | |
| Net change in cash | 5,915 | 5,227 | 4,501 | 3,734 | 2,926 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 7,627 | 6,991 | 6,317 | 5,605 | 4,852 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 28.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹339 | (30.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.