Models
OLECTRA GREENTECH LIMITEDOLECTRAAutomobiles
₹424per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹424implied FY26 P/E 19.6× · EV/EBITDA 11.4×
Against CMP ₹1,208.50−64.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹301₹671
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹867₹1,714
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 408 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,439 |
| Enterprise value | 3,847 |
| less net debt | (371) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,476 |
| ÷ 8.20 crore shares | ₹424 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 441 | 483 | 533 | 594 | 671 |
| 10.50% | 398 | 433 | 474 | 523 | 583 |
| 11.00% | 361 | 390 | 424 | 464 | 513 |
| 11.50% | 329 | 354 | 382 | 416 | 455 |
| 12.00% | 301 | 322 | 347 | 375 | 408 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,208.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 270 · 412 · 576 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,091 | 1,154 | 1,802 | 2,312 | 2,971 | 3,818 | 4,906 | 6,304 | 8,101 |
| growth % | 83.9 | 5.8 | 56.1 | 28.3 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.5 |
| EBITDA | 141 | 174 | 264 | 338 | 434 | 557 | 716 | 920 | 1,183 |
| margin % | 13.0 | 15.1 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| less depreciation | (33) | (37) | (37) | (45) | (56) | (73) | (93) | (120) | (154) |
| EBIT | 108 | 137 | 227 | 293 | 377 | 485 | 623 | 801 | 1,029 |
| less tax on EBIT | (79) | (102) | (131) | (169) | (217) | (279) | |||
| NOPAT | 214 | 275 | 353 | 454 | 584 | 750 | |||
| add depreciation | 33 | 37 | 37 | 45 | 56 | 73 | 93 | 120 | 154 |
| less capex | (65) | (79) | (177) | (159) | (205) | (219) | (225) | (217) | (185) |
| less working-capital build | — | (142) | (183) | (235) | (302) | (388) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (75) | 64 | (36) | — | (16) | 24 | 87 | 185 | 331 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (15) | 20 | 67 | 128 | 207 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 380, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 293 | 377 | 485 | 623 | 801 | 1,029 |
| Interest at 19.3% on debt | (73) | (73) | (73) | (73) | (73) | |
| Profit before tax | 304 | 411 | 550 | 727 | 955 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 222 | 300 | 401 | 530 | 697 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | (60) | (89) | (56) | 76 | 353 |
| Working capital | 499 | 642 | 824 | 1,059 | 1,361 | 1,750 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,058 | 2,207 | 2,354 | 2,486 | 2,582 | 2,613 |
| Debt | 380 | 380 | 380 | 380 | 380 | 380 |
| Equity | 1,233 | 1,455 | 1,755 | 2,155 | 2,685 | 3,382 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 136 | 190 | 259 | 348 | 462 | |
| Investing (capex) | (205) | (219) | (225) | (217) | (185) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (69) | (30) | 34 | 131 | 278 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (69) | (30) | 34 | 131 | 278 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 28.5% | 14.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹424 | (64.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.