₹48per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹48implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 4.8×
Against CMP ₹550.50−91.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3192%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹30₹84
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹176₹765
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 69 |
| PV of terminal value | 760 |
| Enterprise value | 829 |
| less net debt | (234) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 595 |
| ÷ 12.37 crore shares | ₹48 |
92% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 51 | 57 | 64 | 73 | 84 |
| 10.50% | 44 | 49 | 55 | 63 | 71 |
| 11.00% | 39 | 43 | 48 | 54 | 61 |
| 11.50% | 34 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 53 |
| 12.00% | 30 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 46 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹550.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 25 · 47 · 71 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 511 | 552 | 596 | 644 | 696 | 751 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 171 | 184 | 199 | 215 | 232 | 251 |
| margin % | 33.4 | 33.4 | 33.4 | 33.4 | 33.4 | 33.4 |
| less depreciation | (48) | (52) | (56) | (61) | (65) | (71) |
| EBIT | 123 | 133 | 143 | 155 | 167 | 180 |
| less tax on EBIT | (33) | (35) | (38) | (41) | (44) | (48) |
| NOPAT | 90 | 97 | 105 | 114 | 123 | 133 |
| add depreciation | 48 | 52 | 56 | 61 | 65 | 71 |
| less capex | (127) | (137) | (128) | (116) | (102) | (85) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (36) | (39) | (42) | (45) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (21) | (2) | 19 | 44 | 73 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (20) | (2) | 15 | 31 | 46 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 398, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 123 | 133 | 143 | 155 | 167 | 180 |
| Interest at 9.9% on debt | (39) | (39) | (39) | (39) | (39) | |
| Profit before tax | 93 | 104 | 115 | 128 | 141 | |
| Profit after tax | 79 | 68 | 76 | 85 | 94 | 104 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 164 | 114 | 83 | 73 | 88 | 132 |
| Working capital | 416 | 449 | 485 | 524 | 566 | 611 |
| Net block and other assets | 675 | 760 | 832 | 887 | 924 | 938 |
| Debt | 398 | 398 | 398 | 398 | 398 | 398 |
| Equity | 680 | 748 | 824 | 909 | 1,003 | 1,106 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 87 | 96 | 106 | 117 | 129 | |
| Investing (capex) | (137) | (128) | (116) | (102) | (85) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (50) | (31) | (10) | 15 | 44 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (50) | (31) | (10) | 15 | 44 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 33.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹48 | (91.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.