₹506per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹506implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 14.5×
Against CMP ₹328.00+54.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(1.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹381₹756
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹190₹352
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,301 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,113 |
| Enterprise value | 9,414 |
| less net debt | (883) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,531 |
| ÷ 16.85 crore shares | ₹506 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 525 | 567 | 617 | 679 | 756 |
| 10.50% | 480 | 515 | 557 | 606 | 667 |
| 11.00% | 443 | 472 | 506 | 547 | 596 |
| 11.50% | 410 | 435 | 464 | 497 | 537 |
| 12.00% | 381 | 403 | 427 | 456 | 489 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹328.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 414 · 504 · 614 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,179 | 2,354 | 2,542 | 2,745 | 2,965 | 3,202 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 651 | 704 | 760 | 821 | 886 | 957 |
| margin % | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.9 |
| less depreciation | (22) | (24) | (25) | (27) | (30) | (32) |
| EBIT | 629 | 680 | 735 | 793 | 857 | 925 |
| less tax on EBIT | (159) | (172) | (186) | (201) | (217) | (234) |
| NOPAT | 470 | 508 | 549 | 593 | 640 | 691 |
| add depreciation | 22 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 32 |
| less capex | (10) | (12) | (17) | (23) | (30) | (38) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 520 | 557 | 597 | 639 | 685 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 493 | 476 | 460 | 444 | 428 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,092, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 629 | 680 | 735 | 793 | 857 | 925 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (87) | (87) | (87) | (87) | (87) | |
| Profit before tax | 593 | 647 | 706 | 769 | 838 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 443 | 483 | 527 | 575 | 626 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 209 | 664 | 1,156 | 1,687 | 2,261 | 2,881 |
| Working capital | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Net block and other assets | 3,780 | 3,768 | 3,760 | 3,756 | 3,756 | 3,763 |
| Debt | 1,092 | 1,092 | 1,092 | 1,092 | 1,092 | 1,092 |
| Equity | 1,343 | 1,786 | 2,269 | 2,796 | 3,371 | 3,997 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 466 | 509 | 555 | 604 | 658 | |
| Investing (capex) | (12) | (17) | (23) | (30) | (38) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 455 | 492 | 531 | 574 | 620 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 455 | 492 | 531 | 574 | 620 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 29.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹506 | 54.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.