Models
ONWARD TECHNOLOGIES LTDONWARDTECIT - Services
₹298per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹298implied FY26 P/E 15.7× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹283.95+5.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies5.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹235₹425
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹208₹355
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 146 |
| PV of terminal value | 471 |
| Enterprise value | 617 |
| less net debt | 37 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 654 |
| ÷ 2.19 crore shares | ₹298 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 308 | 329 | 355 | 386 | 425 |
| 10.50% | 285 | 303 | 324 | 349 | 380 |
| 11.00% | 266 | 281 | 298 | 319 | 344 |
| 11.50% | 249 | 262 | 277 | 294 | 314 |
| 12.00% | 235 | 245 | 258 | 272 | 289 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹283.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 236 · 296 · 365 |
| Draws below the CMP | 41% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 441 | 472 | 491 | 544 | 601 | 664 | 734 | 811 | 896 |
| growth % | 43.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 27 | 52 | 45 | 69 | 76 | 84 | 92 | 102 | 113 |
| margin % | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 |
| less depreciation | (13) | (13) | (13) | (16) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (24) | (26) |
| EBIT | 14 | 39 | 31 | 53 | 58 | 64 | 71 | 79 | 87 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (18) | (19) | |||
| NOPAT | 41 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 61 | 68 | |||
| add depreciation | 13 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 26 |
| less capex | (5) | (1) | (2) | (18) | (20) | (22) | (25) | (28) | (31) |
| less working-capital build | — | (11) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (17) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1 | 61 | 29 | — | 32 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 45 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 30 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 28 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 25.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 53 | 58 | 64 | 71 | 79 | 87 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 58 | 64 | 71 | 79 | 87 | |
| Profit after tax | 44 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 61 | 68 |
| Dividends | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (17) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 37 | 57 | 79 | 102 | 128 | 156 |
| Working capital | 108 | 119 | 132 | 146 | 161 | 178 |
| Net block and other assets | 226 | 228 | 231 | 235 | 239 | 244 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 254 | 287 | 324 | 366 | 411 | 461 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 51 | 57 | 63 | 69 | 77 | |
| Investing (capex) | (20) | (22) | (25) | (28) | (31) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (17) | |
| Net change in cash | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 32 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 45 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 12.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹298 | 5.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.