ORGANIC RECYCLING SYSTEMS LIMI — valuation model

ORGANIC RECYCLING SYSTEMS LIMIBSE 543997Other Utilities

₹433per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹433implied FY26 P/E 8.8× · EV/EBITDA 14.0×

Against CMP ₹171.10+153.1%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹321₹656

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹147₹300

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	91
PV of terminal value	332
Enterprise value	423
less net debt	(42)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	381
÷ 0.88 crore shares	₹433

78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	449	487	532	587	656
10.50%	410	441	478	522	576
11.00%	376	402	433	469	513
11.50%	347	369	395	425	461
12.00%	321	341	363	388	417

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹171.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	247 · 422 · 593
Draws below the CMP	3%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.90
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.32
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.21

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	27	44	105	137	178	231	300	390
growth %	—	59.2	140.0	30.0	30.0	30.0	30.0	30.0
EBITDA	—	—	30	39	51	66	86	112
margin %	—	—	28.8	28.8	28.8	28.8	28.8	28.8
less depreciation	—	—	(4)	(5)	(7)	(9)	(11)	(14)
EBIT	—	—	26	34	45	58	75	98
less tax on EBIT			(1)	(2)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
NOPAT			25	32	42	55	71	93
add depreciation	—	—	4	5	7	9	11	14
less capex	—	(9)	(0)	(0)	(2)	(5)	(10)	(17)
less working-capital build			—	(20)	(26)	(34)	(45)	(58)
Free cash flow to firm	—	(15)	—	17	20	24	28	32
Discount factor				0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value				16	17	18	19	20

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 45, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	26	34	45	58	75	98
Interest at 8% on debt		(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)
Profit before tax		31	41	54	72	94
Profit after tax	0	29	39	51	68	89
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	3	16	33	54	78	107
Working capital	68	88	114	148	193	251
Net block and other assets	140	135	131	128	127	130
Debt	45	45	45	45	45	45
Equity	123	152	191	242	310	400
Balance check	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		14	19	26	35	46
Investing (capex)		(0)	(2)	(5)	(10)	(17)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		14	17	20	24	29
Free cash flow to equity		14	17	20	24	29

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	30%	28.8%	11.00%	5%	₹433	153.1%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.