Models
ORIENT CEMENT LTD.ORIENTCEMCement & Cement Products
₹229per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹229implied FY26 P/E 22.5× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹125.30+82.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3165%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹184₹318
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹122₹237
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,673 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,158 |
| Enterprise value | 4,831 |
| less net debt | (22) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,809 |
| ÷ 21.00 crore shares | ₹229 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 236 | 251 | 269 | 291 | 318 |
| 10.50% | 220 | 232 | 247 | 265 | 286 |
| 11.00% | 206 | 217 | 229 | 243 | 261 |
| 11.50% | 194 | 203 | 214 | 226 | 240 |
| 12.00% | 184 | 192 | 200 | 211 | 222 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹125.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 180 · 228 · 281 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,938 | 3,185 | 2,709 | 2,793 | 2,877 | 2,963 | 3,052 | 3,144 | 3,238 |
| growth % | 7.8 | 8.4 | (15.0) | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 365 | 449 | 301 | 539 | 555 | 572 | 589 | 607 | 625 |
| margin % | 12.4 | 14.1 | 11.1 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 |
| less depreciation | (147) | (149) | (153) | (231) | (239) | (246) | (253) | (261) | (269) |
| EBIT | 218 | 300 | 148 | 308 | 316 | 326 | 336 | 346 | 356 |
| less tax on EBIT | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 22 | |||
| NOPAT | 327 | 336 | 346 | 356 | 367 | 378 | |||
| add depreciation | 147 | 149 | 153 | 231 | 239 | 246 | 253 | 261 | 269 |
| less capex | (130) | (79) | (60) | (32) | (32) | (98) | (169) | (243) | (323) |
| less working-capital build | — | (18) | (18) | (19) | (20) | (20) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (19) | 347 | 146 | — | 525 | 475 | 422 | 365 | 304 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 498 | 406 | 325 | 253 | 190 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 38, dividends at 3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 308 | 316 | 326 | 336 | 346 | 356 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 313 | 323 | 333 | 343 | 353 | |
| Profit after tax | 338 | 333 | 343 | 353 | 364 | 375 |
| Dividends | (10) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (11) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | 528 | 990 | 1,398 | 1,748 | 2,038 |
| Working capital | 595 | 613 | 632 | 651 | 670 | 690 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,522 | 2,315 | 2,167 | 2,082 | 2,065 | 2,119 |
| Debt | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| Equity | 2,146 | 2,468 | 2,801 | 3,143 | 3,496 | 3,859 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 553 | 570 | 587 | 605 | 623 | |
| Investing (capex) | (32) | (98) | (169) | (243) | (323) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Net change in cash | 512 | 462 | 408 | 351 | 290 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 522 | 472 | 419 | 362 | 301 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 19.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹229 | 82.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.