Models
ORIENT GREEN POWER CO LTDGREENPOWERPower
₹10per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹10implied FY26 P/E 18.2× · EV/EBITDA 8.3×
Against CMP ₹9.34+7.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies9.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3188%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹6₹17
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹8₹15
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 191 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,420 |
| Enterprise value | 1,611 |
| less net debt | (438) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,173 |
| ÷ 117.30 crore shares | ₹10 |
88% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| 10.50% | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 |
| 11.00% | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| 11.50% | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 12.00% | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹9.34; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 6 · 10 · 15 |
| Draws below the CMP | 44% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.27 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 258 | 271 | 263 | 293 | 325 | 361 | 401 | 445 | 494 |
| growth % | (16.8) | 4.9 | (2.8) | 11.2 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 193 | 191 | 172 | 193 | 214 | 238 | 264 | 293 | 325 |
| margin % | 74.6 | 70.6 | 65.5 | 65.9 | 65.9 | 65.9 | 65.9 | 65.9 | 65.9 |
| less depreciation | (83) | (82) | (84) | (86) | (96) | (106) | (118) | (131) | (145) |
| EBIT | 110 | 109 | 89 | 107 | 119 | 132 | 146 | 162 | 180 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| NOPAT | 106 | 118 | 131 | 145 | 161 | 179 | |||
| add depreciation | 83 | 82 | 84 | 86 | 96 | 106 | 118 | 131 | 145 |
| less capex | (2) | (24) | (10) | (193) | (214) | (210) | (203) | (191) | (174) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 164 | 225 | 159 | — | (10) | 17 | 50 | 89 | 137 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (9) | 15 | 38 | 62 | 85 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 503, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 107 | 119 | 132 | 146 | 162 | 180 |
| Interest at 11% on debt | (55) | (55) | (55) | (55) | (55) | |
| Profit before tax | 63 | 76 | 91 | 107 | 125 | |
| Profit after tax | 69 | 63 | 76 | 90 | 106 | 124 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 65 | 1 | (37) | (43) | (8) | 73 |
| Working capital | 78 | 86 | 96 | 107 | 118 | 131 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,589 | 1,708 | 1,812 | 1,897 | 1,957 | 1,986 |
| Debt | 503 | 503 | 503 | 503 | 503 | 503 |
| Equity | 1,155 | 1,217 | 1,293 | 1,383 | 1,489 | 1,613 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 150 | 172 | 197 | 225 | 256 | |
| Investing (capex) | (214) | (210) | (203) | (191) | (174) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (64) | (38) | (5) | 34 | 82 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (64) | (38) | (5) | 34 | 82 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 65.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹10 | 7.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.