Models
ORIENTAL RAIL INFRA LORIRAILIndustrial Manufacturing
₹94per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹94implied FY26 P/E 14.8× · EV/EBITDA 9.9×
Against CMP ₹123.53−24.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹66₹148
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 233 |
| PV of terminal value | 616 |
| Enterprise value | 849 |
| less net debt | (220) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 629 |
| ÷ 6.71 crore shares | ₹94 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 98 | 107 | 118 | 131 | 148 |
| 10.50% | 88 | 96 | 105 | 116 | 129 |
| 11.00% | 80 | 86 | 94 | 103 | 113 |
| 11.50% | 73 | 78 | 84 | 92 | 100 |
| 12.00% | 66 | 71 | 77 | 83 | 90 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹123.53; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 77 · 94 · 115 |
| Draws below the CMP | 96% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.81 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 325 | 526 | 602 | 573 | 545 | 517 | 492 | 467 | 444 |
| growth % | 88.4 | 61.8 | 14.4 | (4.8) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 25 | 67 | 70 | 85 | 81 | 77 | 73 | 70 | 66 |
| margin % | 7.7 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (8) | (8) | (8) |
| EBIT | 18 | 59 | 61 | 76 | 72 | 68 | 65 | 62 | 59 |
| less tax on EBIT | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) | |||
| NOPAT | 56 | 53 | 51 | 48 | 46 | 43 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| less capex | (26) | (6) | (15) | (25) | (24) | (20) | (16) | (12) | (9) |
| less working-capital build | — | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (70) | (1) | (38) | — | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 59 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 57 | 51 | 46 | 41 | 37 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 305, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 76 | 72 | 68 | 65 | 62 | 59 |
| Interest at 8.9% on debt | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | |
| Profit before tax | 45 | 41 | 38 | 35 | 31 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 33 | 31 | 28 | 26 | 23 |
| Dividends | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 85 | 125 | 164 | 204 | 244 | 283 |
| Working capital | 426 | 405 | 385 | 366 | 347 | 330 |
| Net block and other assets | 340 | 355 | 366 | 373 | 378 | 379 |
| Debt | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 305 |
| Equity | 420 | 453 | 484 | 512 | 538 | 561 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 64 | 60 | 56 | 52 | 48 | |
| Investing (capex) | (24) | (20) | (16) | (12) | (9) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 39 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 39 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 14.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹94 | (24.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.