Models
ORKLA INDIA LIMITEDORKLAINDIAFood Products
₹349per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹349implied FY26 P/E 16.2× · EV/EBITDA 11.8×
Against CMP ₹587.50−40.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies24.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹272₹501
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹533₹760
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,231 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,526 |
| Enterprise value | 4,757 |
| less net debt | 23 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,780 |
| ÷ 13.70 crore shares | ₹349 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 360 | 386 | 417 | 454 | 501 |
| 10.50% | 333 | 355 | 380 | 410 | 447 |
| 11.00% | 310 | 328 | 349 | 374 | 403 |
| 11.50% | 290 | 305 | 323 | 343 | 368 |
| 12.00% | 272 | 286 | 301 | 318 | 338 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹587.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 289 · 347 · 417 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,509 | 2,710 | 2,927 | 3,161 | 3,414 | 3,687 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 402 | 434 | 468 | 506 | 546 | 590 |
| margin % | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| less depreciation | (54) | (60) | (64) | (70) | (75) | (81) |
| EBIT | 348 | 374 | 404 | 436 | 471 | 509 |
| less tax on EBIT | (88) | (95) | (102) | (110) | (119) | (129) |
| NOPAT | 260 | 279 | 302 | 326 | 352 | 380 |
| add depreciation | 54 | 60 | 64 | 70 | 75 | 81 |
| less capex | (22) | (24) | (39) | (56) | (75) | (97) |
| less working-capital build | — | (18) | (19) | (21) | (23) | (24) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 297 | 308 | 319 | 329 | 340 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 282 | 263 | 245 | 228 | 212 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 348 | 374 | 404 | 436 | 471 | 509 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 374 | 404 | 436 | 471 | 509 | |
| Profit after tax | 286 | 279 | 302 | 326 | 352 | 380 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 23 | 320 | 627 | 946 | 1,275 | 1,615 |
| Working capital | 224 | 242 | 261 | 282 | 305 | 329 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,155 | 3,120 | 3,094 | 3,081 | 3,081 | 3,097 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,750 | 3,029 | 3,331 | 3,657 | 4,009 | 4,389 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 321 | 347 | 375 | 404 | 437 | |
| Investing (capex) | (24) | (39) | (56) | (75) | (97) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 297 | 308 | 319 | 329 | 340 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 297 | 308 | 319 | 329 | 340 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 16% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹349 | (40.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.