Models
OSWAL PUMPS LIMITEDOSWALPUMPSIndustrial Products
₹383per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹383implied FY26 P/E 12.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.8×
Against CMP ₹283.00+35.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹279₹590
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹272₹840
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 479 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,023 |
| Enterprise value | 4,502 |
| less net debt | (139) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,363 |
| ÷ 11.40 crore shares | ₹383 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 397 | 432 | 474 | 526 | 590 |
| 10.50% | 361 | 390 | 424 | 466 | 516 |
| 11.00% | 329 | 354 | 383 | 417 | 457 |
| 11.50% | 303 | 323 | 348 | 376 | 409 |
| 12.00% | 279 | 297 | 318 | 341 | 369 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹283.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 140 · 375 · 561 |
| Draws below the CMP | 29% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,430 | 2,064 | 2,684 | 3,489 | 4,535 | 5,896 | 7,665 |
| growth % | — | 44.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 420 | 513 | 666 | 865 | 1,125 | 1,462 | 1,901 |
| margin % | 29.4 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.8 |
| less depreciation | (13) | (16) | (21) | (28) | (36) | (47) | (61) |
| EBIT | 407 | 496 | 644 | 837 | 1,089 | 1,415 | 1,840 |
| less tax on EBIT | (113) | (146) | (190) | (247) | (321) | (418) | |
| NOPAT | 384 | 498 | 647 | 841 | 1,094 | 1,422 | |
| add depreciation | 13 | 16 | 21 | 28 | 36 | 47 | 61 |
| less capex | (49) | (137) | (177) | (181) | (171) | (140) | (74) |
| less working-capital build | — | (358) | (465) | (605) | (786) | (1,022) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (200) | — | (16) | 29 | 101 | 215 | 387 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (15) | 25 | 78 | 149 | 242 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 237, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 496 | 644 | 837 | 1,089 | 1,415 | 1,840 |
| Interest at 12.4% on debt | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | |
| Profit before tax | 615 | 808 | 1,059 | 1,386 | 1,810 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 475 | 624 | 819 | 1,071 | 1,399 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 99 | 60 | 66 | 145 | 337 | 702 |
| Working capital | 1,192 | 1,550 | 2,016 | 2,621 | 3,407 | 4,429 |
| Net block and other assets | 855 | 1,011 | 1,164 | 1,299 | 1,392 | 1,404 |
| Debt | 237 | 237 | 237 | 237 | 237 | 237 |
| Equity | 1,683 | 2,158 | 2,783 | 3,601 | 4,672 | 6,071 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 139 | 187 | 250 | 332 | 438 | |
| Investing (capex) | (177) | (181) | (171) | (140) | (74) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (39) | 6 | 79 | 192 | 365 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (39) | 6 | 79 | 192 | 365 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 24.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹383 | 35.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.