Models
PAGE INDUSTRIES LTDPAGEINDTextiles & Apparels
₹11,718per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹11,718implied FY26 P/E 17.3× · EV/EBITDA 11.5×
Against CMP ₹35,390.00−66.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹9,157₹16,824
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹29,805₹45,890
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,191 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,625 |
| Enterprise value | 12,816 |
| less net debt | 255 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 13,071 |
| ÷ 1.12 crore shares | ₹11,718 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 12,095 | 12,955 | 13,987 | 15,248 | 16,824 |
| 10.50% | 11,190 | 11,905 | 12,749 | 13,762 | 15,001 |
| 11.00% | 10,415 | 11,017 | 11,718 | 12,548 | 13,543 |
| 11.50% | 9,744 | 10,256 | 10,847 | 11,536 | 12,350 |
| 12.00% | 9,157 | 9,597 | 10,100 | 10,681 | 11,358 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹35,390.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 9,810 · 11,642 · 13,919 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,789 | 4,582 | 4,935 | 5,247 | 5,588 | 5,951 | 6,338 | 6,750 | 7,189 |
| growth % | 23.2 | (4.3) | 7.7 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| EBITDA | 863 | 872 | 1,063 | 1,118 | 1,190 | 1,268 | 1,350 | 1,438 | 1,531 |
| margin % | 18.0 | 19.0 | 21.5 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| less depreciation | (78) | (91) | (99) | (107) | (112) | (119) | (127) | (135) | (144) |
| EBIT | 785 | 781 | 963 | 1,011 | 1,078 | 1,149 | 1,223 | 1,303 | 1,387 |
| less tax on EBIT | (258) | (275) | (293) | (312) | (332) | (354) | |||
| NOPAT | 753 | 803 | 856 | 911 | 971 | 1,034 | |||
| add depreciation | 78 | 91 | 99 | 107 | 112 | 119 | 127 | 135 | 144 |
| less capex | (166) | (96) | (80) | (108) | (117) | (129) | (143) | (157) | (173) |
| less working-capital build | — | (61) | (65) | (69) | (73) | (78) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (167) | 984 | 1,124 | — | 737 | 781 | 827 | 875 | 927 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 700 | 667 | 637 | 607 | 579 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 12, dividends at 87.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,011 | 1,078 | 1,149 | 1,223 | 1,303 | 1,387 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,077 | 1,148 | 1,222 | 1,302 | 1,386 | |
| Profit after tax | 764 | 803 | 855 | 911 | 970 | 1,033 |
| Dividends | (669) | (703) | (749) | (798) | (850) | (905) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 267 | 301 | 331 | 360 | 385 | 406 |
| Working capital | 934 | 995 | 1,060 | 1,129 | 1,202 | 1,280 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,655 | 1,660 | 1,671 | 1,687 | 1,709 | 1,737 |
| Debt | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Equity | 1,503 | 1,602 | 1,708 | 1,821 | 1,941 | 2,069 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 854 | 909 | 968 | 1,031 | 1,099 | |
| Investing (capex) | (117) | (129) | (143) | (157) | (173) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (703) | (749) | (798) | (850) | (905) | |
| Net change in cash | 33 | 31 | 28 | 25 | 21 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 736 | 780 | 826 | 875 | 926 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6.5% | 21.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹11,718 | (66.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.