Models
PAKKA LIMITEDPAKKAPaper Forest & Jute Products
₹-19per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(19)implied FY25 P/E (9.3)× · EV/EBITDA 1.2×
Against CMP ₹76.30−124.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY30463%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(38)₹21
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹69₹179
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | (253) |
| PV of terminal value | 323 |
| Enterprise value | 70 |
| less net debt | (158) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (88) |
| ÷ 4.77 crore shares | ₹(19) |
463% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (17) | (10) | (2) | 8 | 21 |
| 10.50% | (23) | (18) | (11) | (3) | 7 |
| 11.00% | (29) | (24) | (19) | (12) | (4) |
| 11.50% | (34) | (30) | (25) | (19) | (13) |
| 12.00% | (38) | (34) | (30) | (26) | (20) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹76.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (35) · (19) · (0) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 291 | 408 | 405 | 406 | 408 | 410 | 412 | 414 | 416 |
| growth % | — | 40.3 | (0.9) | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| EBITDA | 63 | 79 | 82 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 61 | 61 | 61 |
| margin % | 21.5 | 19.4 | 20.2 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| less depreciation | (10) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) |
| EBIT | 52 | 67 | 68 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 34 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | |||
| add depreciation | 10 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| less capex | (29) | (39) | (60) | (191) | (192) | (149) | (107) | (63) | (19) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 3 | 8 | (13) | — | (142) | (100) | (56) | (13) | 31 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (135) | (85) | (43) | (9) | 19 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 225, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 44 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Interest at 5.1% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | |
| Profit after tax | 38 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 67 | (84) | (193) | (258) | (280) | (258) |
| Working capital | 163 | 164 | 165 | 165 | 166 | 167 |
| Net block and other assets | 508 | 684 | 818 | 908 | 955 | 958 |
| Debt | 225 | 225 | 225 | 225 | 225 | 225 |
| Equity | 452 | 478 | 503 | 529 | 555 | 581 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 42 | |
| Investing (capex) | (192) | (149) | (107) | (63) | (19) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (151) | (109) | (65) | (22) | 22 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (151) | (109) | (65) | (22) | 22 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0.5% | 14.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(19) | (124.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.