Models
PANAMA PETROCHEM LTDPANAMAPETPetroleum Products
₹427per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹427implied FY26 P/E 5.4× · EV/EBITDA 9.4×
Against CMP ₹483.00−11.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹327₹628
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹229₹600
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 541 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,052 |
| Enterprise value | 2,592 |
| less net debt | (7) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,585 |
| ÷ 6.05 crore shares | ₹427 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 442 | 476 | 516 | 566 | 628 |
| 10.50% | 406 | 435 | 468 | 508 | 556 |
| 11.00% | 376 | 400 | 427 | 460 | 499 |
| 11.50% | 350 | 370 | 393 | 420 | 452 |
| 12.00% | 327 | 344 | 364 | 387 | 413 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹483.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 330 · 424 · 526 |
| Draws below the CMP | 77% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,249 | 2,357 | 2,793 | 3,064 | 3,355 | 3,674 | 4,023 | 4,405 | 4,824 |
| growth % | 5.5 | 4.8 | 18.5 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 309 | 254 | 247 | 276 | 302 | 331 | 362 | 396 | 434 |
| margin % | 13.7 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (18) | (20) | (22) | (24) |
| EBIT | 300 | 244 | 234 | 262 | 285 | 312 | 342 | 374 | 410 |
| less tax on EBIT | (50) | (54) | (60) | (65) | (72) | (78) | |||
| NOPAT | 212 | 231 | 253 | 277 | 303 | 332 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 |
| less capex | (35) | (49) | (27) | (54) | (60) | (55) | (48) | (40) | (29) |
| less working-capital build | — | (90) | (98) | (108) | (118) | (129) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 174 | (77) | 135 | — | 97 | 117 | 141 | 167 | 198 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 92 | 100 | 108 | 116 | 124 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 78, dividends at 8.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 262 | 285 | 312 | 342 | 374 | 410 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 279 | 306 | 336 | 368 | 404 | |
| Profit after tax | 213 | 226 | 248 | 272 | 298 | 327 |
| Dividends | (18) | (19) | (21) | (23) | (26) | (28) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 71 | 144 | 235 | 347 | 484 | 648 |
| Working capital | 948 | 1,038 | 1,136 | 1,244 | 1,362 | 1,492 |
| Net block and other assets | 900 | 943 | 980 | 1,008 | 1,026 | 1,031 |
| Debt | 78 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 78 |
| Equity | 1,469 | 1,675 | 1,901 | 2,150 | 2,422 | 2,720 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 153 | 167 | 184 | 202 | 221 | |
| Investing (capex) | (60) | (55) | (48) | (40) | (29) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (19) | (21) | (23) | (26) | (28) | |
| Net change in cash | 73 | 91 | 112 | 137 | 164 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 92 | 112 | 136 | 162 | 193 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹427 | (11.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.