Models
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD.PARAGMILKFood Products
₹88per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹88implied FY26 P/E 8.4× · EV/EBITDA 6.5×
Against CMP ₹266.10−66.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹58₹150
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹178₹377
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 340 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,303 |
| Enterprise value | 1,643 |
| less net debt | (537) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,106 |
| ÷ 12.50 crore shares | ₹88 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 93 | 103 | 116 | 131 | 150 |
| 10.50% | 82 | 91 | 101 | 113 | 128 |
| 11.00% | 73 | 80 | 88 | 99 | 111 |
| 11.50% | 65 | 71 | 78 | 86 | 96 |
| 12.00% | 58 | 63 | 69 | 76 | 84 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹266.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 41 · 87 · 133 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,893 | 3,139 | 3,432 | 3,818 | 4,237 | 4,704 | 5,221 | 5,795 | 6,433 |
| growth % | 39.6 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 133 | 197 | 253 | 251 | 280 | 310 | 345 | 382 | 425 |
| margin % | 4.6 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| less depreciation | (57) | (60) | (67) | (71) | (81) | (89) | (99) | (110) | (122) |
| EBIT | 76 | 137 | 185 | 180 | 199 | 221 | 245 | 272 | 302 |
| less tax on EBIT | (21) | (23) | (25) | (28) | (31) | (34) | |||
| NOPAT | 160 | 176 | 196 | 217 | 241 | 268 | |||
| add depreciation | 57 | 60 | 67 | 71 | 81 | 89 | 99 | 110 | 122 |
| less capex | (61) | (61) | (124) | (106) | (119) | (126) | (133) | (140) | (147) |
| less working-capital build | — | (78) | (86) | (96) | (106) | (118) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (255) | 38 | 88 | — | 61 | 73 | 88 | 106 | 125 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 58 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 78 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 540, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 180 | 199 | 221 | 245 | 272 | 302 |
| Interest at 14.1% on debt | (76) | (76) | (76) | (76) | (76) | |
| Profit before tax | 123 | 145 | 169 | 196 | 226 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 109 | 128 | 150 | 174 | 200 |
| Dividends | (12) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | (4) | 2 | 23 | 61 | 119 |
| Working capital | 708 | 786 | 872 | 968 | 1,074 | 1,192 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,569 | 1,607 | 1,644 | 1,677 | 1,707 | 1,731 |
| Debt | 540 | 540 | 540 | 540 | 540 | 540 |
| Equity | 1,259 | 1,368 | 1,496 | 1,646 | 1,820 | 2,020 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 112 | 131 | 153 | 178 | 205 | |
| Investing (capex) | (119) | (126) | (133) | (140) | (147) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (7) | 6 | 21 | 38 | 58 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (7) | 6 | 21 | 38 | 58 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 6.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹88 | (66.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.