Models
PARKHOTELSPARKHOTELSLeisure Services
₹24per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹24implied FY26 P/E 8.1× · EV/EBITDA 3.5×
Against CMP ₹111.50−78.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31132%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹11₹51
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹95₹164
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (238) |
| PV of terminal value | 990 |
| Enterprise value | 751 |
| less net debt | (233) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 518 |
| ÷ 21.34 crore shares | ₹24 |
132% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 26 | 31 | 36 | 43 | 51 |
| 10.50% | 21 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 42 |
| 11.00% | 17 | 21 | 24 | 29 | 34 |
| 11.50% | 14 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 28 |
| 12.00% | 11 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 23 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹111.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 9 · 24 · 41 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 579 | 631 | 707 | 792 | 887 | 994 | 1,113 | 1,246 |
| growth % | — | 9.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 192 | 205 | 214 | 240 | 269 | 301 | 337 | 378 |
| margin % | 33.2 | 32.4 | 30.3 | 30.3 | 30.3 | 30.3 | 30.3 | 30.3 |
| less depreciation | (51) | (62) | (74) | (83) | (93) | (104) | (117) | (131) |
| EBIT | 142 | 143 | 140 | 157 | 176 | 197 | 220 | 247 |
| less tax on EBIT | (60) | (68) | (76) | (85) | (95) | (106) | ||
| NOPAT | 80 | 89 | 100 | 112 | 125 | 140 | ||
| add depreciation | 51 | 62 | 74 | 83 | 93 | 104 | 117 | 131 |
| less capex | (119) | (151) | (287) | (322) | (298) | (264) | (218) | (157) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (19) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 49 | 16 | — | (161) | (118) | (63) | 7 | 95 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (153) | (101) | (49) | 5 | 60 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 257, dividends at 16.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 140 | 157 | 176 | 197 | 220 | 247 |
| Interest at 18.1% on debt | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | |
| Profit before tax | 110 | 129 | 150 | 174 | 200 | |
| Profit after tax | 66 | 63 | 73 | 85 | 99 | 114 |
| Dividends | (11) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (18) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 24 | (174) | (331) | (434) | (470) | (419) |
| Working capital | 101 | 113 | 126 | 141 | 158 | 177 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,930 | 2,168 | 2,373 | 2,533 | 2,634 | 2,660 |
| Debt | 257 | 257 | 257 | 257 | 257 | 257 |
| Equity | 1,342 | 1,395 | 1,456 | 1,528 | 1,611 | 1,706 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 134 | 153 | 175 | 199 | 226 | |
| Investing (capex) | (322) | (298) | (264) | (218) | (157) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (18) | |
| Net change in cash | (198) | (157) | (103) | (35) | 50 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (188) | (145) | (90) | (19) | 69 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 30.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹24 | (78.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.