Models
PATANJALI FOODS LIMITEDPATANJALIAgricultural Food & other Products
₹132per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹132implied FY26 P/E 7.3× · EV/EBITDA 10.7×
Against CMP ₹341.00−61.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3188%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹93₹212
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹328₹615
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,946 |
| PV of terminal value | 14,621 |
| Enterprise value | 16,567 |
| less net debt | (2,167) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 14,400 |
| ÷ 108.79 crore shares | ₹132 |
88% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 138 | 151 | 167 | 187 | 212 |
| 10.50% | 124 | 135 | 148 | 164 | 183 |
| 11.00% | 112 | 121 | 132 | 145 | 161 |
| 11.50% | 102 | 110 | 119 | 130 | 142 |
| 12.00% | 93 | 100 | 108 | 117 | 127 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹341.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 55 · 130 · 197 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.27 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 34,157 | 40,170 | 47,199 | 55,459 | 65,164 | 76,568 | 89,968 |
| growth % | — | 17.6 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,946 | 1,554 | 1,841 | 2,163 | 2,541 | 2,986 | 3,509 |
| margin % | 5.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| less depreciation | (268) | (248) | (283) | (333) | (391) | (459) | (540) |
| EBIT | 1,678 | 1,306 | 1,558 | 1,830 | 2,150 | 2,527 | 2,969 |
| less tax on EBIT | 445 | 531 | 624 | 733 | 862 | 1,012 | |
| NOPAT | 1,751 | 2,089 | 2,454 | 2,884 | 3,388 | 3,981 | |
| add depreciation | 268 | 248 | 283 | 333 | 391 | 459 | 540 |
| less capex | (144) | (974) | (1,133) | (1,098) | (1,017) | (873) | (648) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1,293) | (1,520) | (1,786) | (2,098) | (2,465) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 154 | — | (54) | 169 | 472 | 877 | 1,408 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (52) | 145 | 364 | 608 | 880 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,784, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,306 | 1,558 | 1,830 | 2,150 | 2,527 | 2,969 |
| Interest at 7.3% on debt | (203) | (203) | (203) | (203) | (203) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,354 | 1,627 | 1,947 | 2,324 | 2,766 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 1,816 | 2,182 | 2,611 | 3,116 | 3,709 |
| Dividends | (263) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 616 | 289 | 186 | 386 | 990 | 2,125 |
| Working capital | 7,374 | 8,667 | 10,187 | 11,973 | 14,071 | 16,536 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,812 | 11,662 | 12,427 | 13,053 | 13,466 | 13,574 |
| Debt | 2,784 | 2,784 | 2,784 | 2,784 | 2,784 | 2,784 |
| Equity | 13,096 | 14,912 | 17,094 | 19,705 | 22,821 | 26,530 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 806 | 995 | 1,216 | 1,477 | 1,783 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,133) | (1,098) | (1,017) | (873) | (648) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (327) | (103) | 200 | 604 | 1,135 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (327) | (103) | 200 | 604 | 1,135 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17.5% | 3.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹132 | (61.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.