Models
PAUSHAK LIMITEDPAUSHAKLTDChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹75per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹75implied FY26 P/E 1.8× · EV/EBITDA 4.3×
Against CMP ₹728.00−89.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31115%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹39₹146
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹343₹827
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (39) |
| PV of terminal value | 300 |
| Enterprise value | 262 |
| less net debt | (77) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 185 |
| ÷ 2.47 crore shares | ₹75 |
115% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 79 | 92 | 106 | 124 | 146 |
| 10.50% | 67 | 77 | 89 | 103 | 121 |
| 11.00% | 56 | 65 | 75 | 87 | 101 |
| 11.50% | 47 | 55 | 63 | 73 | 84 |
| 12.00% | 39 | 46 | 53 | 61 | 71 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹728.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 39 · 74 · 113 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 212 | 206 | 211 | 219 | 226 | 234 | 242 | 251 | 260 |
| growth % | 41.5 | (2.9) | 2.3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | 77 | 64 | 60 | 61 | 63 | 65 | 67 | 70 | 72 |
| margin % | 36.2 | 31.3 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 27.8 |
| less depreciation | (13) | (14) | (15) | (21) | (22) | (23) | (24) | (25) | (25) |
| EBIT | 63 | 51 | 45 | 39 | 41 | 42 | 44 | 45 | 47 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | |||
| add depreciation | 13 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 25 |
| less capex | (17) | (39) | (160) | (88) | (91) | (78) | (63) | (47) | (31) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 26 | 17 | (123) | — | (39) | (24) | (8) | 10 | 29 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (37) | (21) | (6) | 7 | 18 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 77, dividends at 15.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 39 | 41 | 42 | 44 | 45 | 47 |
| Interest at 2.2% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 39 | 40 | 42 | 43 | 45 | |
| Profit after tax | 39 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 |
| Dividends | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (45) | (76) | (90) | (86) | (64) |
| Working capital | 61 | 63 | 65 | 67 | 70 | 72 |
| Net block and other assets | 599 | 668 | 723 | 762 | 785 | 790 |
| Debt | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 |
| Equity | 491 | 517 | 544 | 571 | 600 | 630 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 50 | 52 | 54 | 56 | 58 | |
| Investing (capex) | (91) | (78) | (63) | (47) | (31) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | (45) | (30) | (14) | 4 | 22 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (41) | (25) | (9) | 9 | 28 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 27.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹75 | (89.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.