Models
PCBL CHEMICAL LIMITEDPCBLChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹10per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹10implied FY26 P/E 1.5× · EV/EBITDA 4.9×
Against CMP ₹331.50−97.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(20)₹70
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹227₹426
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,010 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,976 |
| Enterprise value | 4,986 |
| less net debt | (4,596) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 390 |
| ÷ 39.35 crore shares | ₹10 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 14 | 24 | 36 | 51 | 70 |
| 10.50% | 4 | 12 | 22 | 34 | 48 |
| 11.00% | (5) | 2 | 10 | 20 | 31 |
| 11.50% | (13) | (7) | (0) | 8 | 17 |
| 12.00% | (20) | (15) | (9) | (2) | 6 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹331.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (18) · 10 · 42 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,774 | 6,420 | 8,404 | 8,189 | 7,985 | 7,785 | 7,590 | 7,401 | 7,216 |
| growth % | 29.9 | 11.2 | 30.9 | (2.6) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) |
| EBITDA | 731 | 1,037 | 1,336 | 1,018 | 990 | 965 | 941 | 918 | 895 |
| margin % | 12.7 | 16.2 | 15.9 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| less depreciation | (137) | (217) | (346) | (373) | (367) | (358) | (349) | (340) | (332) |
| EBIT | 594 | 820 | 991 | 645 | 623 | 607 | 592 | 577 | 563 |
| less tax on EBIT | (155) | (150) | (146) | (143) | (139) | (136) | |||
| NOPAT | 490 | 473 | 461 | 449 | 438 | 427 | |||
| add depreciation | 137 | 217 | 346 | 373 | 367 | 358 | 349 | 340 | 332 |
| less capex | (896) | (536) | (774) | (727) | (711) | (627) | (547) | (471) | (398) |
| less working-capital build | — | 24 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 22 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (392) | 570 | (13) | — | 154 | 216 | 274 | 330 | 383 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 146 | 184 | 211 | 229 | 239 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,825, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 645 | 623 | 607 | 592 | 577 | 563 |
| Interest at 8.3% on debt | (400) | (400) | (400) | (400) | (400) | |
| Profit before tax | 222 | 207 | 192 | 177 | 162 | |
| Profit after tax | 198 | 169 | 157 | 145 | 134 | 123 |
| Dividends | (226) | (169) | (157) | (145) | (134) | (123) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 230 | (89) | (335) | (510) | (618) | (662) |
| Working capital | 971 | 947 | 923 | 900 | 878 | 856 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,094 | 10,437 | 10,706 | 10,904 | 11,035 | 11,101 |
| Debt | 4,825 | 4,825 | 4,825 | 4,825 | 4,825 | 4,825 |
| Equity | 4,019 | 4,019 | 4,019 | 4,019 | 4,019 | 4,019 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 560 | 539 | 518 | 497 | 477 | |
| Investing (capex) | (711) | (627) | (547) | (471) | (398) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (169) | (157) | (145) | (134) | (123) | |
| Net change in cash | (319) | (245) | (175) | (108) | (44) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (150) | (88) | (30) | 26 | 79 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2.5% | 12.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹10 | (97.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.