₹1,218per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,218implied FY26 P/E 18.1× · EV/EBITDA 12.1×
Against CMP ₹1,192.20+2.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies10.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹930₹1,791
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,108₹2,540
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,117 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,488 |
| Enterprise value | 5,605 |
| less net debt | 18 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,623 |
| ÷ 4.62 crore shares | ₹1,218 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,259 | 1,356 | 1,472 | 1,614 | 1,791 |
| 10.50% | 1,158 | 1,238 | 1,333 | 1,447 | 1,587 |
| 11.00% | 1,071 | 1,139 | 1,218 | 1,311 | 1,423 |
| 11.50% | 996 | 1,053 | 1,120 | 1,198 | 1,289 |
| 12.00% | 930 | 980 | 1,036 | 1,102 | 1,178 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,192.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 966 · 1,204 · 1,497 |
| Draws below the CMP | 48% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,158 | 3,436 | 4,506 | 5,025 | 5,602 | 6,247 | 6,965 | 7,766 | 8,659 |
| growth % | 16.4 | 8.8 | 31.1 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 269 | 307 | 408 | 463 | 515 | 575 | 641 | 714 | 797 |
| margin % | 8.5 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| less depreciation | (51) | (64) | (75) | (87) | (95) | (106) | (118) | (132) | (147) |
| EBIT | 218 | 243 | 333 | 375 | 420 | 469 | 522 | 582 | 649 |
| less tax on EBIT | (48) | (53) | (59) | (66) | (74) | (82) | |||
| NOPAT | 328 | 367 | 409 | 456 | 508 | 567 | |||
| add depreciation | 51 | 64 | 75 | 87 | 95 | 106 | 118 | 132 | 147 |
| less capex | (68) | (124) | (118) | (187) | (207) | (205) | (200) | (191) | (177) |
| less working-capital build | — | (68) | (76) | (85) | (95) | (105) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 297 | 228 | 59 | — | 187 | 234 | 290 | 355 | 432 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 177 | 200 | 223 | 247 | 270 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 687, dividends at 21.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 375 | 420 | 469 | 522 | 582 | 649 |
| Interest at 16.7% on debt | (115) | (115) | (115) | (115) | (115) | |
| Profit before tax | 305 | 354 | 408 | 468 | 535 | |
| Profit after tax | 278 | 267 | 309 | 356 | 408 | 467 |
| Dividends | (60) | (58) | (67) | (77) | (89) | (101) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 704 | 733 | 800 | 912 | 1,079 | 1,310 |
| Working capital | 592 | 660 | 736 | 821 | 915 | 1,021 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,948 | 2,060 | 2,159 | 2,241 | 2,300 | 2,329 |
| Debt | 687 | 687 | 687 | 687 | 687 | 687 |
| Equity | 1,438 | 1,647 | 1,889 | 2,167 | 2,487 | 2,853 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 294 | 339 | 390 | 446 | 509 | |
| Investing (capex) | (207) | (205) | (200) | (191) | (177) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (58) | (67) | (77) | (89) | (101) | |
| Net change in cash | 29 | 67 | 112 | 167 | 231 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 86 | 134 | 190 | 255 | 332 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 9.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,218 | 2.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.