Models
PENNAR INDUSTRIES LTDPENINDIndustrial Manufacturing
₹67per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹67implied FY26 P/E 6.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.2×
Against CMP ₹175.45−62.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31103%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹26₹149
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹129₹280
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (56) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,892 |
| Enterprise value | 1,836 |
| less net debt | (936) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 900 |
| ÷ 13.49 crore shares | ₹67 |
103% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 72 | 86 | 103 | 123 | 149 |
| 10.50% | 58 | 69 | 83 | 100 | 120 |
| 11.00% | 46 | 55 | 67 | 80 | 96 |
| 11.50% | 35 | 43 | 53 | 64 | 77 |
| 12.00% | 26 | 33 | 41 | 51 | 62 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹175.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 9 · 65 · 121 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.36 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,895 | 3,131 | 3,227 | 3,620 | 4,055 | 4,541 | 5,086 | 5,696 | 6,380 |
| growth % | 27.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 221 | 273 | 310 | 355 | 397 | 445 | 498 | 558 | 625 |
| margin % | 7.6 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| less depreciation | (65) | (67) | (69) | (84) | (93) | (104) | (117) | (131) | (147) |
| EBIT | 156 | 206 | 241 | 271 | 304 | 341 | 381 | 427 | 478 |
| less tax on EBIT | (61) | (68) | (77) | (86) | (96) | (108) | |||
| NOPAT | 210 | 236 | 264 | 296 | 331 | 371 | |||
| add depreciation | 65 | 67 | 69 | 84 | 93 | 104 | 117 | 131 | 147 |
| less capex | (71) | (247) | (126) | (328) | (369) | (341) | (302) | (248) | (176) |
| less working-capital build | — | (101) | (113) | (127) | (142) | (159) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 173 | (22) | 130 | — | (141) | (86) | (16) | 72 | 182 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (134) | (74) | (12) | 50 | 114 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,142, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 271 | 304 | 341 | 381 | 427 | 478 |
| Interest at 14.4% on debt | (164) | (164) | (164) | (164) | (164) | |
| Profit before tax | 140 | 176 | 217 | 263 | 314 | |
| Profit after tax | 165 | 108 | 137 | 168 | 204 | 243 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 206 | (63) | (277) | (420) | (475) | (420) |
| Working capital | 843 | 944 | 1,058 | 1,185 | 1,327 | 1,486 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,502 | 2,778 | 3,015 | 3,199 | 3,316 | 3,345 |
| Debt | 1,142 | 1,142 | 1,142 | 1,142 | 1,142 | 1,142 |
| Equity | 1,163 | 1,271 | 1,408 | 1,576 | 1,780 | 2,023 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 100 | 128 | 158 | 193 | 231 | |
| Investing (capex) | (369) | (341) | (302) | (248) | (176) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (269) | (214) | (143) | (55) | 55 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (269) | (214) | (143) | (55) | 55 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 9.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹67 | (62.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.